Jamie, I find it interesting that the mainstream media is “fact checking” volcanic activity! Do you think there is a relationship between a decrease in Grand Solar Minimum and volcanic activity? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7575229/
Great analysis. I was so intrigued by your point of view, I downloaded the global satellite temperature dataset as well as the el ninio (SOI) datasets, to see if that might shed some light. I cross-plotted the two, and, on first blush, this does seem to be a very unique phenomenon and is the most extreme points on the graph.That certainly supports your skepticism towards a strong tie between the two phenomenon.
If you would like to see the plot let me know how to get the information to you.
Hi, that sounds very interesting. If you email the graph to jaimejessop@substack.com, I should get it, then I will post it here as an update to this post. Thanks.
Nov 6, 2023·edited Nov 6, 2023Liked by Jaime Jessop
Complex environmental systems are almost impossible to model when all of the variables are known. When we're completely missing probably 40% of the variables as we are in global weather/climate our modeling efforts are amusing at best. Even adjunct local compensatory mechanisms that will include organic influences (i.e. growth of ocean algae / forests altering atmospheric composition and solar reflectivity) would be a fools errand to model.
I suggest being as resilient as possible in your own sphere and simply enjoying the ride....
I did purchase a brand new very $$$$ huge snowblower just last week to ensure a winter devoid of snow in the NE USA... You're welcome.
If we are faced with a spell of global warming above the dreaded 1.5°C lasting for several years as Jaime surmises, this will throw the climate alarmists into confusion. Firstly, it will be obvious that breeching 1.5 degrees makes very little practical difference to normal living.
Secondly, the El Nino will by then be spent and they will be forced to admit that HT has caused the sudden warming and that atmospheric H2O is a much more potent GHG than CO2, which sceptics have been saying for years yet alarmists have excluded from their climate models.
Thirdly, if it takes several years for the HT water vapour to finally dissipate, we will by then be approaching or even past the start of the cooling phase of the cyclical Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and global temperatures could start to fall quickly: https://www.climate4you.com/images/AMO%20DetrendedGlobalAnnualIndexSince1856%20With11yearRunningAverage.gif. See how well it correlates with the global cooling from the 1950s to the 1970s when scientists were convinced that we were about to enter a new ice age.
I find that pretty convincing. The problem is that in the run-up to COP28 (and indeed in its aftermath), the increase in temperature this year is just too convenient for alarmists to concede that its cause could be anything other than man-made.
“We would be damned fools and bad scientists if we didn’t expect an acceleration of global warming,” Hansen said. “We are beginning to suffer the effect of our Faustian bargain. That is why the rate of global warming is accelerating.”
He is arguing that climate sensitivity to CO2 is much higher than the IPCC estimates, plus the elimination of sulphur from ship fuels is also contributing to the sudden acceleration in global warmth. The alarmists are going for this; evidence and science be damned.
Maybe they will admit that they have been putting chemicals in the atmosphere to control the weather and “protect us from ourselves.” Thank you Bill the billionaire and your generous philanthropic heart. Where would we all be without you working for the “greater good?”
‘Twisting themselves into pretzels’ is what the Climate Alarmist lobby normally does for breakfast (generously funded with payola from the investors of the Renewables industry juggernaut). One outcome of COP28 will no doubt be yet another shrill outcry in the lying corporate media for more economic virgins to be sacrificed in the declining West to appease the false god of Global Warming. I suspect that reference to the true god of Hunga Tonga will only appear as a footnote to the proceedings of the COP. The high priests who manage the thought-control programs of the Australian Academy of Science probably won’t even mention the volcano in their annual report. They would be afraid that doing so would lend credence to Emeritus Professor Ian Plimer’s excellent deconstruction of their whole pseudoscientific construct.
Jamie, I find it interesting that the mainstream media is “fact checking” volcanic activity! Do you think there is a relationship between a decrease in Grand Solar Minimum and volcanic activity? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7575229/
Great analysis. I was so intrigued by your point of view, I downloaded the global satellite temperature dataset as well as the el ninio (SOI) datasets, to see if that might shed some light. I cross-plotted the two, and, on first blush, this does seem to be a very unique phenomenon and is the most extreme points on the graph.That certainly supports your skepticism towards a strong tie between the two phenomenon.
If you would like to see the plot let me know how to get the information to you.
Keep up the great work.
Hi, that sounds very interesting. If you email the graph to jaimejessop@substack.com, I should get it, then I will post it here as an update to this post. Thanks.
Somebody explain this to Greta Thunberg!!
Does Greta read? I think her handlers may read to her, but poor little thing is so lost. 😞
Thanks for keeping Hunga Tonga in view...
It is so obvious when an El Niño occurs out of any pattern that we have ever encountered that something doesn’t fit. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6b0ftfKFEJg
Complex environmental systems are almost impossible to model when all of the variables are known. When we're completely missing probably 40% of the variables as we are in global weather/climate our modeling efforts are amusing at best. Even adjunct local compensatory mechanisms that will include organic influences (i.e. growth of ocean algae / forests altering atmospheric composition and solar reflectivity) would be a fools errand to model.
I suggest being as resilient as possible in your own sphere and simply enjoying the ride....
I did purchase a brand new very $$$$ huge snowblower just last week to ensure a winter devoid of snow in the NE USA... You're welcome.
If we are faced with a spell of global warming above the dreaded 1.5°C lasting for several years as Jaime surmises, this will throw the climate alarmists into confusion. Firstly, it will be obvious that breeching 1.5 degrees makes very little practical difference to normal living.
Secondly, the El Nino will by then be spent and they will be forced to admit that HT has caused the sudden warming and that atmospheric H2O is a much more potent GHG than CO2, which sceptics have been saying for years yet alarmists have excluded from their climate models.
Thirdly, if it takes several years for the HT water vapour to finally dissipate, we will by then be approaching or even past the start of the cooling phase of the cyclical Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and global temperatures could start to fall quickly: https://www.climate4you.com/images/AMO%20DetrendedGlobalAnnualIndexSince1856%20With11yearRunningAverage.gif. See how well it correlates with the global cooling from the 1950s to the 1970s when scientists were convinced that we were about to enter a new ice age.
I find that pretty convincing. The problem is that in the run-up to COP28 (and indeed in its aftermath), the increase in temperature this year is just too convenient for alarmists to concede that its cause could be anything other than man-made.
Hansen has already Pretzelled himself:
“We would be damned fools and bad scientists if we didn’t expect an acceleration of global warming,” Hansen said. “We are beginning to suffer the effect of our Faustian bargain. That is why the rate of global warming is accelerating.”
He is arguing that climate sensitivity to CO2 is much higher than the IPCC estimates, plus the elimination of sulphur from ship fuels is also contributing to the sudden acceleration in global warmth. The alarmists are going for this; evidence and science be damned.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/02/heating-faster-climate-change-greenhouse-james-hansen
It will at least be amusing as they are going to have to twist themselves into pretzels in order to do so.
Maybe they will admit that they have been putting chemicals in the atmosphere to control the weather and “protect us from ourselves.” Thank you Bill the billionaire and your generous philanthropic heart. Where would we all be without you working for the “greater good?”
‘Twisting themselves into pretzels’ is what the Climate Alarmist lobby normally does for breakfast (generously funded with payola from the investors of the Renewables industry juggernaut). One outcome of COP28 will no doubt be yet another shrill outcry in the lying corporate media for more economic virgins to be sacrificed in the declining West to appease the false god of Global Warming. I suspect that reference to the true god of Hunga Tonga will only appear as a footnote to the proceedings of the COP. The high priests who manage the thought-control programs of the Australian Academy of Science probably won’t even mention the volcano in their annual report. They would be afraid that doing so would lend credence to Emeritus Professor Ian Plimer’s excellent deconstruction of their whole pseudoscientific construct.