Met Office: 'Extreme Weather Attribution Haruspicy Done Seven Years Ago Proves That A Few Hot Days In June 2025 Were Caused By Climate Change'
A recent press release from the Met Office re. the two ‘heatwaves’ which affected the East and South East of England during June:
Firstly, about that ‘record’. I commented here:
In terms of maximum daytime temperature in England, 1976 and 2023 were hotter. 2025 has been the warmest on record for night time minimum temperature.
England – Mean daily maximum temp
JuneEngland – Mean daily minimum temp
JuneThis bumped up the mean.
Why are night time temperatures rising so rapidly? Urban heat island. The concrete, bricks and asphalt which absorb heat during the day, release it overnight, driving up night time temperatures. Many thermometers are sited in weather stations which suffer from urban encroachment. Even during the day, UHI increases temperatures relative to rural locations. Not climate change, just more people, generating more heat and a lot more buildings and hard surfaces. Plus, a clear increasing trend in solar insolation since 1990, which moreover mirrors quite closely the variable trend in maximum temperature recorded since 1910:
England – Sunshine
June
So, given that 1976 was hotter and, in the even longer running Central England Temperature series, several other June months were warmer, as far back as the 17th century, and given that it’s been getting sunnier in England since 1990 and encroachment of buildings and other development on weather stations is driving up the ambient air temperature, one wonders how much ‘climate change’ actually contributed to those few hot days we saw in June (not me by the way, it’s been cool, windy and very wet here in Cumbria for the past month). But Met Office scientist Amy Doherty has no such reservations. She knows for sure it was climate change wot dunnit:
Met Office Climate Scientist, Dr Amy Doherty, said: "While we’ve not conducted formal climate attribution studies into June 2025’s two heatwaves, past studies have shown it is virtually certain that human influence has increased the occurrence and intensity of extreme heat events such as this.
"Numerous climate attribution studies have shown that human influence increased the chance that specific extreme heat events would occur, such as the summer of 2018 and July 2022. Our Met Office climate projections indicate that hot spells will become more frequent in our future climate, particularly over the southeast of the UK. Temperatures are projected to rise in all seasons, but the heat would be most intense in summer."
I’ve looked at both of those past attribution analyses in some detail and found them to be, shall we say, of dubious scientific merit at best, little more than finding meaning in tea leaves or chicken entrails at worst.
Here:
UK Heatwave Attribution II
Yep, that is the basic conclusion of the experts’ rigorous statistical analysis of the two day extreme heatwave which occurred in parts of the UK on the 18th and 19th July. Even the all singing, all dancing, super sophisticated climate models running on mega expensive main frame computers using enough energy to power a small town concluded that it was a…
And here:
The idea of the Met Office - who are keen to promote Net Zero by weaponising a few hot days in East Anglia and the South East, but can’t be arsed even to put in the work of doing extreme weather attribution studies - invoking a ‘proper’ extreme weather analysis on a Scandinavian heatwave seven years ago to claim that those few hot days in June 2025 were somehow made more likely because of man-made climate change is beyond absurd. A ‘proper’ formal heatwave analysis is highly specific to the geographical location analysed and the severity and duration of said heatwave. It cannot be used to draw conclusions about a totally different weather event which takes place seven years later across a different location! As I said on X today:
It’s not just the Met Office either who can’t be bothered. Ben Clarke and Friederike Otto also can’t be bothered to do proper formal analyses, prefer to wave their hands about instead and claim the pseudoscientific past is a reliable guide to the climate fantasy present and future.
It's Summertime To Blame The Non Existent Climate Crisis For A Few Hot Days!
World Weather Attribution are likely enjoying the fine weather so much, sipping chilled champagne by the private pool that they can’t even be arsed to do a ‘proper’ attribution study post event, so they’ve rushed out a “super rapid attribution analysis”
Makes you want to weep like a Chancellor of the Exchequer, it really does.
The Met Office has long since lost the plot. Why does a public body that is very generously funded by the taxpayer to forecast the weather choose, apparently, to obsessed about climate change, almost to the exclusion of it's day job?
Your analysis, Jaime, makes a lot of sense. Why is it an analysis that is beyond the "experts" at the Met Office?
Over the past 5 years I’ve come to recognize that the ‘government’s’ main means of controlling, I mean ‘governing’ the population is through fear. Be it nuclear war, global warming, global cooling, viruses, terrorists, or climate change. Today the ‘news’ on my weather app asks: “Where will Canada sizzle the most in July?” Using words to scare. Like Stay Safe. Good grief 🤦♀️