Zeke Hausfather: Record Heat In 2023 Is Due To "Weird" El Nino Which Started Punching Well Above Its Weight When It Was Just Knee High To A Grasshopper!

These climate ‘experts’ take us for absolute bloody fools. Here’s what Hausfather says to the BBC:

"We really see no sign that this year's string of exceptional record-setting months is going away anytime soon," said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth.

"And at this point, it makes it virtually certain in all the datasets that 2023 will be the warmest year on record. That's a greater than 99% chance," he told BBC News.

"This El Niño is weird. Part of the heat we're experiencing is not just due to the increase in El Niño, it's due to this rapid switch out of (ocean-cooling weather event) La Niña conditions as well, that has been suppressing temperatures for the last few years," said Dr Hausfather.

In effect, he’s saying that the planet became suddenly very warm in July this year because of a “weird” developing (and very modest) El Nino which punched well above its weight in terms of global temperatures. He’s also telling us, unbelievably, that it got so hot, so quickly, because of an unusually “rapid switch out” from La Nina to El Nino conditions. This I doubt, but even if it’s true, all it would mean is that global temperatures would switch more rapidly from cool to warm - a relative change. What we are seeing happening from July 2023 is a large and rapid warming which exceeds in absolute terms the rapid warming experienced in all other years. 2023 warming is unique, on its own terms. You only have to look at the accompanying chart for October kindly by provided by the BBC to see this:

The sudden and unprecedented jump in surface temperature in October 2023 is not only huge relative to the preceding year (2022) it is huge and unprecedented in relation to the overall trend of increasingly warm Octobers since 1980. October 2023 warmth is extreme both in relative terms and in absolute terms, so it can’t just be due to a “rapid switch out” from La Nina to El Nino and blaming it on an even now only moderate El Nino which was barely knee high to a grasshopper in July 2023 is just stupid. But Hausfather thinks it’s us who are stupid, obviously.

Friederike Otto is not much better. She’s still banging on about extreme weather:

While many researchers are concerned about the scientific impacts of record-breaking temperatures this year, others point to the fact that the rising mercury has real world impacts.

"The fact that we're seeing this record hot year means record human suffering," said Dr Friederike Otto from Imperial College London, commenting on the findings.

"Within this year, extreme heatwaves and droughts made much worse by these extreme temperatures have caused thousands of deaths, people losing their livelihoods, being displaced etc. These are the records that matter."

And the BBC also thinks we are stupid:

The main driver of the heat is ongoing emissions of carbon dioxide, mainly from burning fossil fuels. It is being supplemented this year by the rise of El Niño - a natural event where warm waters come to the surface in the east Pacific Ocean and release extra heat into the atmosphere.

Scientists are uncertain as to whether this Niño event is different from others in recent decades. Some are concerned that it might be driving greater heating at the ocean surface than during previous events such as the ones in 1997 and 2015. The jury is still out on that.

How can a moderate El Nino, which was only just getting going in July 2023, suddenly and unexpectedly drive greater heating at the surface than the massive El Nino events of 1997 and 2015 at their peak? How? I want to know. “Weird” doesn’t cut it in terms of scientific explanations. Not a single mention of the eruption of Hunga Tonga of course. What a farce.

Update 8 Nov 2023

There have only been three ‘very strong’ El Nino events since 1950:

The current El Nino has just reached 1.5 ONI, beyond which it qualifies as a ‘strong’ event. At this point in 2015, ONI was 2.2.

NOAA forecasts that the event may now peak and decline from here on:

In summary, it is absolutely crazy to try to pin the current extreme and sudden warming on this El Nino.