Well first the world boiled (in July), and now it’s on a gentle simmer. There has been a very slight increase in lower tropospheric global mean temperature during August, versus July, when it increased significantly. As you can see from the graph, as things normally go, global temperature spikes briefly (due to El Nino events) and then drops rapidly thereafter. The current El Nino has only just got going and ensemble forecasts predict that it will be a moderate event at best, so it’s not currently El Nino which is keeping global temperatures high and as we note, El Nino causes temperatures to spike, briefly, usually during late winter/spring, soon after mid tropical Pacific ocean temperatures reach their peak around Christmas (hence El Nino = ‘the boy child’).
e 2023 researchers also concluded that Hunga Tonga was one of the most remarkable climate events in modern history, and its effects are expected to last for years:
[D]ue to extreme altitude reach of the eruption, volcanic plume circumnavigated the Earth in only one week and dispersed nearly pole-to-pole in three months. The observations provide evidence for an unprecedented increase in the global stratospheric water mass by 13% as compared to climatological levels. As there are no efficient sinks of water vapour in the stratosphere, this perturbation is expected to persist several years. The eruption has also led to a 5-fold increase in the stratospheric aerosol load, the highest in the last three decades yet factor of 6 smaller than the previous major eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1991.
The unique nature and magnitude of the global stratospheric perturbation by the Hung eruption ranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observation era.""
That study, which I made reference to in my earlier Substack post, pointed out that the stratospheric water vapour anomaly in the southern hemisphere was 24% vs. just 11% in the northern hemisphere, so even though it was distributed pole to pole, still one might expect the radiative heating effect to be greater in the southern hemisphere, which is a bit puzzling, though it might be due to the fact that the NH has much more land, which heats up more quickly.
Perhaps these silver skies that replaced blue years ago in NY? ‘Persistent contrail formations’, lol, sure. But assuredly, can describe night warming faster than day across industrialized western nations. Also, trees burning from the inside, which is found in California, Hawaii, Greece etc.
It’s annoying that we get faced with such (usually transient) events from time to time as climate propagandists always misrepresent them. Such rapid global temperature changes cannot possibly be due to man-made CO2.
Clive Best shows a similar trend in his latest global temperature anomaly graph which only goes up to July (so August could well be above 2016). He describes the new El Nino as strong (heat graph). He doesn’t mention Hunga. https://clivebest.com/blog/?p=10595.
"A strong El Nino has developed similar to that in 2016."
Clive's a bit optimistic. At the moment the JuneJulyAugust ONI is 1.1. In 2016 it was 1.5C and rose to a maximum of 2.6C in OND and NDJ, setting the stage for the atmospheric global temperature spike in Feb and Mar 2016. 2015/16 El Nino was classed as 'very strong' - a super El Nino. 2023/24 may only be 'moderate', 'strong' at best.
Hunga Tonga distibuted water vapor globally from pole to pole.https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2dfa8c8e-3271-4e65-a0cc-9639ab4049ae_2018x348.png
e 2023 researchers also concluded that Hunga Tonga was one of the most remarkable climate events in modern history, and its effects are expected to last for years:
[D]ue to extreme altitude reach of the eruption, volcanic plume circumnavigated the Earth in only one week and dispersed nearly pole-to-pole in three months. The observations provide evidence for an unprecedented increase in the global stratospheric water mass by 13% as compared to climatological levels. As there are no efficient sinks of water vapour in the stratosphere, this perturbation is expected to persist several years. The eruption has also led to a 5-fold increase in the stratospheric aerosol load, the highest in the last three decades yet factor of 6 smaller than the previous major eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1991.
The unique nature and magnitude of the global stratospheric perturbation by the Hung eruption ranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observation era.""
That study, which I made reference to in my earlier Substack post, pointed out that the stratospheric water vapour anomaly in the southern hemisphere was 24% vs. just 11% in the northern hemisphere, so even though it was distributed pole to pole, still one might expect the radiative heating effect to be greater in the southern hemisphere, which is a bit puzzling, though it might be due to the fact that the NH has much more land, which heats up more quickly.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F297b51f1-cb94-42fb-b852-c05463ec0b6c_1101x615.png
Yes, thanks for the detail. It is indeed curious.
Jeff Childs actually did a pretty good report on it here..https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/overheated-friday-july-28-2023-c?lli=1&utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fhunga%2520tonga&utm_medium=reader2
Perhaps these silver skies that replaced blue years ago in NY? ‘Persistent contrail formations’, lol, sure. But assuredly, can describe night warming faster than day across industrialized western nations. Also, trees burning from the inside, which is found in California, Hawaii, Greece etc.
It’s annoying that we get faced with such (usually transient) events from time to time as climate propagandists always misrepresent them. Such rapid global temperature changes cannot possibly be due to man-made CO2.
Clive Best shows a similar trend in his latest global temperature anomaly graph which only goes up to July (so August could well be above 2016). He describes the new El Nino as strong (heat graph). He doesn’t mention Hunga. https://clivebest.com/blog/?p=10595.
"A strong El Nino has developed similar to that in 2016."
Clive's a bit optimistic. At the moment the JuneJulyAugust ONI is 1.1. In 2016 it was 1.5C and rose to a maximum of 2.6C in OND and NDJ, setting the stage for the atmospheric global temperature spike in Feb and Mar 2016. 2015/16 El Nino was classed as 'very strong' - a super El Nino. 2023/24 may only be 'moderate', 'strong' at best.
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php