OK, let’s get right into it shall we. We’ll start with this, published in Nature in January this year: On 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) eruption injected 146 MtH2O and 0.42 MtSO2 into the stratosphere. This large water vapour perturbation means that HTHH will probably increase the net radiative forcing, unusual for a large volcanic eruption, increasing the chance of the global surface temperature anomaly temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C over the coming decade.
Because the science is by no means settled and very much open to debate, I was expecting (hoping) for some challenges from people who know their stuff. Alas, all I've got so far is a couple of trolls. :(
Such a rapid rise in tropospheric temperatures could not be due to CO2 greenhouse gas warming which according to the fraudulent UN IPCC operates on a slow but steady rate of 0.2°C per decade. The climate alarmists will be left with even more egg on their faces if the El Nino is also ruled out as the cause when it eventually dissipates.
If this hypothesis is correct (and to me it seems a distinct possibility) then temperatures may peak before falling back considerably when the water vapour dissipates, which might happen at the same time as El Nino ends.
Assuming that this all happens as GHG emissions continue to rise, the alarmists could be in a very awkward situation, with a lot of explaining to do.
The thing is, the water vapour is only being removed very slowly, so it will be up there in significant amounts for the next two or even three years. This should be a good test of the El Nino vs. Hunga Tonga global warming hypothesis. El Nino warming spikes briefly then sharply declines. If GMST remains unusually high for the next several months and does not drop sharply next year, then we are probably looking at the effects of HT.
Thanks Jaimie. Your penetrating intelligence is truly inspiring .
Because the science is by no means settled and very much open to debate, I was expecting (hoping) for some challenges from people who know their stuff. Alas, all I've got so far is a couple of trolls. :(
Such a rapid rise in tropospheric temperatures could not be due to CO2 greenhouse gas warming which according to the fraudulent UN IPCC operates on a slow but steady rate of 0.2°C per decade. The climate alarmists will be left with even more egg on their faces if the El Nino is also ruled out as the cause when it eventually dissipates.
If this hypothesis is correct (and to me it seems a distinct possibility) then temperatures may peak before falling back considerably when the water vapour dissipates, which might happen at the same time as El Nino ends.
Assuming that this all happens as GHG emissions continue to rise, the alarmists could be in a very awkward situation, with a lot of explaining to do.
The thing is, the water vapour is only being removed very slowly, so it will be up there in significant amounts for the next two or even three years. This should be a good test of the El Nino vs. Hunga Tonga global warming hypothesis. El Nino warming spikes briefly then sharply declines. If GMST remains unusually high for the next several months and does not drop sharply next year, then we are probably looking at the effects of HT.