Storm Bert Wales Flooding - Putting Climate Alarmism To The Test

The way we do science - correction, the way science should be done - is to advance a hypothesis or theory and then test it by experimentation. If a series of experiments repeatedly, and repeatably, conform to predictions generated by the hypothesis, then theory becomes generally accepted fact, and we move on, never forgetting of course that new facts might subsequently emerge which challenge the generally accepted scientific theory. But that’s not how climate change cultists and TV climate evangelists work. They go on the telly or write in the MSM, telling us what is, and what’s not, based upon their own limited knowledge and preconceptions and what they’ve heard straight from the mouths of propagandists. They don’t need no stinkin’ facts to make the claim: Storm Bert is evidence of a climate crisis. So without further ado, here’s the stinkin’ facts. But first the stinky claimants:

Nelufar is an “environmental journalist,” or thinks she is, and she claims to know all about the meteorology and climatology associated with events like Storm Bert:

“I know it’s climate change. I’m going to explain.”

“The irregularities are becoming regular. We’re getting more used to extreme weather events. We’re also becoming more used to like hot days in summer and more really cold days. So, when we realise this pattern is happening again and again, this is climate change.”

WTF! More hot days and more cold days? Seriously, WTAF?! This doesn’t even pass the intelligence bar for disinformation. It’s just too dumb, too moronic. It’s all of the adjectives below, in front of the word ‘information’:

Then we’ve got Jim Dale. Don’t even get me started on Jim ‘I’m a qualified meteorologist - say I’m not and I’ll sue you’ Dale!

Finally we’ve got an actual meteorologist who thinks she’s smarter than this cos . . . . . . Clausius-Clapeyron, innit!

She notably does not commit herself to the suggestion that storms are becoming more frequent and/or severe - because they’re not. But she waffles on about a warmer atmosphere holding more moisture and hence ‘more intense rainfall’ and more rainfall expected.

So let’s examine Ms Green’s claim by putting it to the test, i.e. by measuring it up against empirical data.

Is Wales getting significantly wetter in November? No.

Is Wales getting significantly wetter in Autumn? No.

Are November and Autumn getting significantly warmer in Wales? Yes!

What does this tell us? It tells us that even though November and the three months Sep-Oct-Nov have become much warmer since just before 1890, there is no significant trend in rainfall totals during those periods, so the simple Clausius-Clapeyron law of ‘a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture’ is not translating into more rainfall. That’s a fail for Ms Green then.

Were September and October 2024 (brown line) significantly wetter in Wales? No.

Was summer 2024 very wet in Wales? No. It was quite dry in fact.

So the flooding has got nothing to do with previous accumulation of rainfall. But maybe she’s right about more intense - shorter period rainfall. Maybe that’s increasing? Here’s a list of short period record rainfall totals for the UK from Wikipedia. There is not much evidence that extreme rainfalls are becoming more frequent in the 21st century compared with the late 19th/early 20th century, although there is a definite uptick in very heavy rainfall in the two years 2015 and 2009 - which also happen to correspond with some pretty extreme El Nino/La Nina activity over those periods.

Statista have published an analysis of recent rainfall trends in Wales but you need a paid account to view it. However, it doesn’t look like there is any significant trend, and again, 2015 stands out, with 2009 actually being the driest period, annually, in over two decades.

The only evidence for any significant increase in rainfall in Wales is during winter:

But it’s not winter - yet. So overall, there is no hard data to suggest that Storm Bert is evidence of an imaginary ‘climate crisis’, either because of the flooding it has caused due to exceptionally heavy rainfall, or accumulated autumn rainfall, or because such storms are becoming more frequent and/or severe. The climate change TV evangelists are selling us snake oil as usual.