Dr Roy Spencer has updated the UAH lower tropospheric temperature series. The global temperature anomaly shot up to +0.64C in July: It’s almost as warm as February 2016 and just slightly warmer than April 1998, which marked the global warming peaks associated with two very powerful El Ninos. El Nino has barely got going at the present time so it can’t be that which is causing this spike in global temperature, so what on earth is going on? Dr Roy Spencer says:
It's just occurred to me that underlying warming from the eruption of Hunga Tonga may have masked more than cooling due to the emissions of stratospheric sulphate aerosols; it may also have cancelled cooling in 2022 due to the final year of the rare 'triple dip' La Nina. 2022 was in fact the warmest La Nina year ever recorded:
"Twin reports released Thursday by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found the last nine years were the hottest nine on record, with 2022 being the warmest La Niña year ever recorded.
That’s significant, scientists said, since the La Niña phenomenon typically has a cooling effect on global temperatures."
If this is so, then the warming as a result of the Hunga Tonga eruption may be even greater than estimated and now that the aerosols have disappeared AND El Nino is developing in the Pacific, we could be looking at some pretty extreme global warming in the next 6 months to a year. The media is going to go into hysterics if so, even more so than they are at the moment.
For what it is worth, in the very middle of the country, Chicago area, I can tell you for a fact that as of Aug. 4, the summer here has been one of the most pleasant (i.e., not hot) I can remember in 25 years.
Excellent summary of the findings. Thanks for the heads up on how the propagandists will be beating us about the head with their special tools of blame and badgering.
I've been expecting some effect from Hunga Tonga since I saw how much water and dirt it chucked up, so I can't say I'm surprised.
And, as you say, it will be exploited for political ends.
Fortunately, probable as a result of the reaction to the Covid fiasco, more people are much more likely to distrust the alarmists now than three years ago, added to which there is an increasing perception of the fraudulence of the Nut Zero BS.
I know this was the hottest and terribly humid July I can ever remember in the past 20+ years...
And why? We don't know and never will as our garbage models are just that. It's nice and interesting to have people pontificate but it's likely all correlative rubbish and conjecture much like their CO2 scam.
If someone could build a working predictive weather model (and survive assassination by the Co2 priesthood) they'd be rich beyond measure.
"If someone could build a working predictive weather model..."
They can't.
“In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
IPCC Working Group I: The Scientific Basis, Third Assessment Report (TAR), Chapter 14 (final para., 14.2.2.2), p774.
Anyone who claims that a purported computer game - sorry, climate simulation of an effectively infinitely large open-ended non-linear feedback-driven (where we don’t know all the feedbacks, and even the ones we do know, we are unsure of the signs of some critical ones) chaotic system – hence subject to inter alia extreme sensitivity to initial conditions, strange attractors and bifurcation – is capable of making meaningful predictions over any significant time period is either a charlatan or a computer salesman.
Ironically, the first person to point this out was Edward Lorenz – a climate scientist.
Even if we knew all the initial parameters they still wouldn't work, extreme sensitivity to initial parameters - and ongoing, any point can be considered one of those - prevent it.
And even if we could overcome that, then comes along a disruptive effect effect like Hunga Tonga and blows up the lot!
Your last paragraph Jaime is the most worrying. There is no question that the Catastrophisers will seize the opportunity to bang their drum. This is a great piece of work you have done and will arm me with some info for when the inevitable happens.
As an adjunct I'm currently watching an @tan123 podcast with Nicola Scaffeta which is a tremendous 2hr lecture on the natural causes of climate change. If your readers haven't seen it I'd encourage them to view it
Yes, I'm very concerned that any significant short term warming will be exploited to terrify the populace into relinquishing even more of their freedoms and accepting more mass transfer of wealth via the ridiculous 'Green solutions' to an imaginary man-made 'climate crisis'.
Aug 3, 2023·edited Aug 3, 2023Liked by Jaime Jessop
This sudden spike in UAH temperature is an opportunity to mock anyone who claims it is due to human influence. There is no scientific mechanism by which atmospheric CO2 could cause such a sudden change. The same applies to recent El Nino spikes, e.g. in 1998 and 2016.
According to the UN IPCC (not that I believe their modelling at all), man-made CO2 in the atmosphere causes global warming at a slow but steady rate of about 0.2°C ± 0.1 per decade https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/faq/faq-chapter-1/. The July spike is an increase of well over 0.2°C in a month, equivalent to a rate of over 24°C per decade.
You will find this from Andrew Dessler with real time satellite images of the sulphur and the water vapour very interesting. The net effect on climate will be at most 0.075% but probably half this and possibly cooling. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-climate-impact-of-the-hunga-tonga 'Thus, the HT radiative forcing of ~0.1 W/m^2 will generate a warming of ~0.075C. But this is an overestimate — it is the amount of warming that would eventually occur if you maintained this forcing for the millennia required to reach equilibrium. The HT radiative perturbation will last no more than a decade before the air in the stratosphere is completely replaced, so we will get maybe half of the equilibrium warming over the next few years.
This explains why scientists estimate just a few hundredths of a degree of warming from HT’s water vapor. Aerosols will offset this warming perhaps even driving net cooling. In any case, the global climate impact of the eruption will be small.'
I am in the interesting position of being blocked by Sam Bailey from her youtube and substack channel because she didn't want to engage with me on the science surrounding the effects of animals agriculture and also blocked on Twitter by Prof. Micheal Mann who didn't want to engage with me on what literature he had read enabling him to decide what was 'covid' misinformation and what wasn't.
What he doesn't mention is that the aerosol load from Hunga Tonga, although large, was considerably less than Pinatubo, the water vapour was the largest observed in the satellite record by a very considerable margin and, most importantly, the residence time of the water vapour in the stratosphere will be much longer than that of the aerosols. Also, the existence of the water vapour will itself accelerate the removal of aerosols from the stratosphere in comparison to 'dry' eruptions like Pinatubo.
That 'Brief Communications' study seriously underestimates the aerosols emissions from Hunga Tonga. They were the largest since Pinatubo and that eruption cooled the globe by 0.5C at its peak. The fact that it did not cool at all after Hunga Tonga, especially in view of the triple dip La Nina ongoing in 2022, suggests that the underlying warming from the stratospheric water vapour perturbation has been very significant and now that La Nina and volcanic aerosols are no longer affecting the globe, we might see some pretty extreme warming in the next 6 months. But nothing whatsoever to do with CO2.
"We find that the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha-apai eruption produced the largest global perturbation of stratospheric aerosols since the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 and the largest perturbation of stratospheric water vapour observed in the satellite era."
And whatever HT caused warming is "well accepted" by any paper, do not think the global media will report said warming as anything but climate disaster that requires government regulation.
Very true Douglas, but these fanatics rely upon the general scientific ignorance of the public to promote their 'climate crisis' narrative and unfortunately, with the full power of the main stream media behind them, plus online censorship of dissenting views, it works.
I see no censorship of dissent, Bjorn Lomburg and Jordan Peterson are everywhere getting millions of clicks.
The MSM loves hot weather it always and alway will but yesterday there was nothing on the BBC website about climate at all, they're only interesting in clicks.
The Mail is calling the oil industry funded Just stop oil an alarmist mob, which they are. They antagonise on purpose to turn people off the environmental message. We are being played by the political and financial might of big oil and animal ag.
It certainly hasn't been the 'hottest July evah' in the UK and UAH data confirms that July 2023 is still not the hottest month in the relatively short data series going back to 1979. Claims that earth is now the warmest it's been in 125,000 years are for the fairies!
Fancy living in a cave, do you?
This should be under the post below.
So the earth's weather and climate should not be exploited for political or financial ends but her resources and animals should be?
Is not the first exploiting one of the species of animals on this planet?
It's not warming oop North in God's Country, it's 13 deg C at the moment and damp with it.
I want my Global Warming back, one way or another it's cost me a fortune!
It's just occurred to me that underlying warming from the eruption of Hunga Tonga may have masked more than cooling due to the emissions of stratospheric sulphate aerosols; it may also have cancelled cooling in 2022 due to the final year of the rare 'triple dip' La Nina. 2022 was in fact the warmest La Nina year ever recorded:
"Twin reports released Thursday by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found the last nine years were the hottest nine on record, with 2022 being the warmest La Niña year ever recorded.
That’s significant, scientists said, since the La Niña phenomenon typically has a cooling effect on global temperatures."
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/12/us/2022-warmest-la-nina-year-climate/index.html
If this is so, then the warming as a result of the Hunga Tonga eruption may be even greater than estimated and now that the aerosols have disappeared AND El Nino is developing in the Pacific, we could be looking at some pretty extreme global warming in the next 6 months to a year. The media is going to go into hysterics if so, even more so than they are at the moment.
For what it is worth, in the very middle of the country, Chicago area, I can tell you for a fact that as of Aug. 4, the summer here has been one of the most pleasant (i.e., not hot) I can remember in 25 years.
Excellent summary of the findings. Thanks for the heads up on how the propagandists will be beating us about the head with their special tools of blame and badgering.
excellent analysis. thank you!
Excellent piece Jaime, I couldn't agree more.
I've been expecting some effect from Hunga Tonga since I saw how much water and dirt it chucked up, so I can't say I'm surprised.
And, as you say, it will be exploited for political ends.
Fortunately, probable as a result of the reaction to the Covid fiasco, more people are much more likely to distrust the alarmists now than three years ago, added to which there is an increasing perception of the fraudulence of the Nut Zero BS.
Interesting times!
I know this was the hottest and terribly humid July I can ever remember in the past 20+ years...
And why? We don't know and never will as our garbage models are just that. It's nice and interesting to have people pontificate but it's likely all correlative rubbish and conjecture much like their CO2 scam.
If someone could build a working predictive weather model (and survive assassination by the Co2 priesthood) they'd be rich beyond measure.
"If someone could build a working predictive weather model..."
They can't.
“In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
IPCC Working Group I: The Scientific Basis, Third Assessment Report (TAR), Chapter 14 (final para., 14.2.2.2), p774.
Anyone who claims that a purported computer game - sorry, climate simulation of an effectively infinitely large open-ended non-linear feedback-driven (where we don’t know all the feedbacks, and even the ones we do know, we are unsure of the signs of some critical ones) chaotic system – hence subject to inter alia extreme sensitivity to initial conditions, strange attractors and bifurcation – is capable of making meaningful predictions over any significant time period is either a charlatan or a computer salesman.
Ironically, the first person to point this out was Edward Lorenz – a climate scientist.
There's a scaled image of the Earth next to the giant flaming Sun which kind of puts all this prediction malarky to bed...
In short, models could be built, but not with 10% of the terrestrial variables known and poorly measured at that.
🎯
Even if we knew all the initial parameters they still wouldn't work, extreme sensitivity to initial parameters - and ongoing, any point can be considered one of those - prevent it.
And even if we could overcome that, then comes along a disruptive effect effect like Hunga Tonga and blows up the lot!
Your last paragraph Jaime is the most worrying. There is no question that the Catastrophisers will seize the opportunity to bang their drum. This is a great piece of work you have done and will arm me with some info for when the inevitable happens.
As an adjunct I'm currently watching an @tan123 podcast with Nicola Scaffeta which is a tremendous 2hr lecture on the natural causes of climate change. If your readers haven't seen it I'd encourage them to view it
https://youtu.be/OMyLGPmb1m8
Yes, I'm very concerned that any significant short term warming will be exploited to terrify the populace into relinquishing even more of their freedoms and accepting more mass transfer of wealth via the ridiculous 'Green solutions' to an imaginary man-made 'climate crisis'.
This sudden spike in UAH temperature is an opportunity to mock anyone who claims it is due to human influence. There is no scientific mechanism by which atmospheric CO2 could cause such a sudden change. The same applies to recent El Nino spikes, e.g. in 1998 and 2016.
According to the UN IPCC (not that I believe their modelling at all), man-made CO2 in the atmosphere causes global warming at a slow but steady rate of about 0.2°C ± 0.1 per decade https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/faq/faq-chapter-1/. The July spike is an increase of well over 0.2°C in a month, equivalent to a rate of over 24°C per decade.
Steve Milloy puts the latest spike in context: https://twitter.com/JunkScience/status/1686719167838228481?t=iabhXX61Z0BesYAGIaikWQ&s=19
You will find this from Andrew Dessler with real time satellite images of the sulphur and the water vapour very interesting. The net effect on climate will be at most 0.075% but probably half this and possibly cooling. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-climate-impact-of-the-hunga-tonga 'Thus, the HT radiative forcing of ~0.1 W/m^2 will generate a warming of ~0.075C. But this is an overestimate — it is the amount of warming that would eventually occur if you maintained this forcing for the millennia required to reach equilibrium. The HT radiative perturbation will last no more than a decade before the air in the stratosphere is completely replaced, so we will get maybe half of the equilibrium warming over the next few years.
This explains why scientists estimate just a few hundredths of a degree of warming from HT’s water vapor. Aerosols will offset this warming perhaps even driving net cooling. In any case, the global climate impact of the eruption will be small.'
I am in the interesting position of being blocked by Sam Bailey from her youtube and substack channel because she didn't want to engage with me on the science surrounding the effects of animals agriculture and also blocked on Twitter by Prof. Micheal Mann who didn't want to engage with me on what literature he had read enabling him to decide what was 'covid' misinformation and what wasn't.
What he doesn't mention is that the aerosol load from Hunga Tonga, although large, was considerably less than Pinatubo, the water vapour was the largest observed in the satellite record by a very considerable margin and, most importantly, the residence time of the water vapour in the stratosphere will be much longer than that of the aerosols. Also, the existence of the water vapour will itself accelerate the removal of aerosols from the stratosphere in comparison to 'dry' eruptions like Pinatubo.
The climate scientists know about el Nino, they discovered it. I don't know who is being mocked here or who the scientifically ignorant are.
Neither do you understand the article, as nobody was mocking. Do you want somebody to be mocked?
The ban on sulphur dioxide producing marine oils may have a tiny heating effect but there was an absence of cooling sand from the Saharan air layer this year also https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/its-saharan-dust-season-but-wheres
It is well accepted that the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai may cause a temporary surface anomaly in global temperatures https://www.carbonbrief.org/tonga-volcano-eruption-raises-imminent-risk-of-temporary-1-5c-breach/
That 'Brief Communications' study seriously underestimates the aerosols emissions from Hunga Tonga. They were the largest since Pinatubo and that eruption cooled the globe by 0.5C at its peak. The fact that it did not cool at all after Hunga Tonga, especially in view of the triple dip La Nina ongoing in 2022, suggests that the underlying warming from the stratospheric water vapour perturbation has been very significant and now that La Nina and volcanic aerosols are no longer affecting the globe, we might see some pretty extreme warming in the next 6 months. But nothing whatsoever to do with CO2.
"We find that the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha-apai eruption produced the largest global perturbation of stratospheric aerosols since the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 and the largest perturbation of stratospheric water vapour observed in the satellite era."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00618-z
And whatever HT caused warming is "well accepted" by any paper, do not think the global media will report said warming as anything but climate disaster that requires government regulation.
Very true Douglas, but these fanatics rely upon the general scientific ignorance of the public to promote their 'climate crisis' narrative and unfortunately, with the full power of the main stream media behind them, plus online censorship of dissenting views, it works.
I see no censorship of dissent, Bjorn Lomburg and Jordan Peterson are everywhere getting millions of clicks.
The MSM loves hot weather it always and alway will but yesterday there was nothing on the BBC website about climate at all, they're only interesting in clicks.
The Mail is calling the oil industry funded Just stop oil an alarmist mob, which they are. They antagonise on purpose to turn people off the environmental message. We are being played by the political and financial might of big oil and animal ag.
Sad but probably true. According to recent polling data from The Policy Institute, only 18% disagree with the statement: Human-caused climate change is real and is a threat to people and the planet (and other equally depressing figures), https://www.kcl.ac.uk/policy-institute/assets/conspiracy-belief-among-the-uk-public.pdf.
Judging by the fading of my tan gleaned in June, July was a damp squib in the UK, I find it hard to believe we have had the hottest July on record!
That may be but it is certainly the hottest I have experienced in my 20 plus years in Japan.
It certainly hasn't been the 'hottest July evah' in the UK and UAH data confirms that July 2023 is still not the hottest month in the relatively short data series going back to 1979. Claims that earth is now the warmest it's been in 125,000 years are for the fairies!
and have great difficulty explaing that sea levels have been about 2 m higher then now within the last 10 k years.