"Why has it taken establishment science months to catch up with what was bleedin’ obvious (to me at least) from the word go?'"
To avert the global heating crisis - caused by volcanoes - we need redistribute wealth, increase taxation and institute a global lockdown. Watch the studies roll in now 😉
From your first discussions of this matter, I was convinced that your explanation had merit. I looked at the data and found the standard (official) factors did not and can not be the cause of this temperature event. I am surprised people who do this for a living are not even motivated to look at the data that clearly speaks to variables that are outside of the standard few. I must say the pursuit of science, specially within complex systems, seem so poorly investigated these days. Oh well, it might be, that I am just not privy to the current intellectual heights from which they speak, a height that is beyond my understanding.
I have the answer for you. There is no money to be made, no funding to be secured from telling the truth.
The money is in pushing the current "thing" in this case, man-made climate change.
NASA scientists even admitted that the Tonga eruption was liable to effect the global climate. OF COURSE IT WILL.
Nobody wants to expose things -- that we can't do anything about. Because the big money is in manipulating people into believing that, by becoming economic slaves, they will "save the planet."
So wait, back as far as 1815, scientists could figure out that global cooling on a huge scale was caused by the Tambora eruption, yet in the 2020s they can't figure out that an underwater eruption could cause global warming? Boy, climate science sure has come a long way! LOL
the volcanic eruption seems the most likely culprit. You're probably aware of Ethical Skeptic's theory that rapid warmup, especially of the oceans, is coming from within the earth itself. What do you think of his theory?
I took a grad course in air-sea interaction back in 1991. My interest came from working in IR remote sensing of sea temperature which up to that point was fairly error prone. One of the things we learned was that in an El Nino year all bets are off in the North Atlantic. The effects on temperatures of the "Southern Oscillation" are more predictable the closer you are to the West Coast of South America.
They are clutching at straws. Their own climate models show a probability of ~0% for the record global temperature rather than their stated ~1%. The Raikoke eruption happened back in 2019 and the shipping fuel sulphur regulation changes were introduced in 2020.
At least they openly refer to the obvious culprit, the January 2022 Hunga Tonga undersea eruption. World meteorologists would have been alerted to the power of Hunga Tonga by the unprecedented spike in the UK Central England Temperature series in March 2022 (the green line at the end), but they all kept schtum about it: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/legacy/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate_3.gif.
Maybe they are starting to realise that they can’t hope to get away with ignoring Hunga Tonga forever, especially as the global warming it caused has now served its COP28 fearmongering purpose.
“Why has it taken establishment science months to catch up with what was bleedin’ obvious (to me at least) from the word go?” Because (so-called) “science” these days is done more by consensus and less by investigation. And let’s not get started with trusting the $cience™️. And let’s completely ignore pseudoscience, such as virology. Pseudoscience? https://drsambailey.com/a-farewell-to-virology-expert-edition/
“ERA5 provides hourly estimates of a large number of atmospheric, land and oceanic climate variables. The data cover the Earth on a 30km grid and resolve the atmosphere using 137 levels from the surface up to a height of 80km. ERA5 includes information about uncertainties for all variables at reduced spatial and temporal resolutions.”
I’d love to see their 1940 data of temperatures at 80km altitude.
I will light a candle tonight for the polar bears we have lost.... :)
"Why has it taken establishment science months to catch up with what was bleedin’ obvious (to me at least) from the word go?'"
To avert the global heating crisis - caused by volcanoes - we need redistribute wealth, increase taxation and institute a global lockdown. Watch the studies roll in now 😉
From your first discussions of this matter, I was convinced that your explanation had merit. I looked at the data and found the standard (official) factors did not and can not be the cause of this temperature event. I am surprised people who do this for a living are not even motivated to look at the data that clearly speaks to variables that are outside of the standard few. I must say the pursuit of science, specially within complex systems, seem so poorly investigated these days. Oh well, it might be, that I am just not privy to the current intellectual heights from which they speak, a height that is beyond my understanding.
I have the answer for you. There is no money to be made, no funding to be secured from telling the truth.
The money is in pushing the current "thing" in this case, man-made climate change.
NASA scientists even admitted that the Tonga eruption was liable to effect the global climate. OF COURSE IT WILL.
Nobody wants to expose things -- that we can't do anything about. Because the big money is in manipulating people into believing that, by becoming economic slaves, they will "save the planet."
https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/goddard/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/
So wait, back as far as 1815, scientists could figure out that global cooling on a huge scale was caused by the Tambora eruption, yet in the 2020s they can't figure out that an underwater eruption could cause global warming? Boy, climate science sure has come a long way! LOL
the volcanic eruption seems the most likely culprit. You're probably aware of Ethical Skeptic's theory that rapid warmup, especially of the oceans, is coming from within the earth itself. What do you think of his theory?
https://theethicalskeptic.com/2020/02/16/the-climate-change-alternative-we-ignore-to-our-peril/
Heh, "climate scientists"!
An oxymoron if ever there was one!
You called it, long ago.
I took a grad course in air-sea interaction back in 1991. My interest came from working in IR remote sensing of sea temperature which up to that point was fairly error prone. One of the things we learned was that in an El Nino year all bets are off in the North Atlantic. The effects on temperatures of the "Southern Oscillation" are more predictable the closer you are to the West Coast of South America.
They are clutching at straws. Their own climate models show a probability of ~0% for the record global temperature rather than their stated ~1%. The Raikoke eruption happened back in 2019 and the shipping fuel sulphur regulation changes were introduced in 2020.
At least they openly refer to the obvious culprit, the January 2022 Hunga Tonga undersea eruption. World meteorologists would have been alerted to the power of Hunga Tonga by the unprecedented spike in the UK Central England Temperature series in March 2022 (the green line at the end), but they all kept schtum about it: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/legacy/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate_3.gif.
Maybe they are starting to realise that they can’t hope to get away with ignoring Hunga Tonga forever, especially as the global warming it caused has now served its COP28 fearmongering purpose.
“Why has it taken establishment science months to catch up with what was bleedin’ obvious (to me at least) from the word go?” Because (so-called) “science” these days is done more by consensus and less by investigation. And let’s not get started with trusting the $cience™️. And let’s completely ignore pseudoscience, such as virology. Pseudoscience? https://drsambailey.com/a-farewell-to-virology-expert-edition/
"Falsehood flies, and the Truth comes limping after it" - Jonathan Swift
Well, science was ever thus so perhaps we should be grateful that they have begun to include natural events in their climate modelling.
The real problem lies with the system that takes the utterances of uncertain science as gospel truth.
Whenever you see the word “reanalysis”, you know it just means we fudged the data to fit the narrative currently favoured by our sponsors.
From their website
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/ecmwf-reanalysis-v5
“ERA5 provides hourly estimates of a large number of atmospheric, land and oceanic climate variables. The data cover the Earth on a 30km grid and resolve the atmosphere using 137 levels from the surface up to a height of 80km. ERA5 includes information about uncertainties for all variables at reduced spatial and temporal resolutions.”
I’d love to see their 1940 data of temperatures at 80km altitude.