This is quite a long and technical article. I suggest those people who might be bored by the more technical parts of this essay (especially the quotes from scientific papers) just read the wording in bold to get the gist of what’s going on. Before I get to the mission ‘impossible’ I want to highlight another
They've been building these meteorological/climate models for decades only to prove time and time again that they're garbage.
The consistent failure of insilico modeling for complex systems is almost universal. This is much like the Imperial College Covid models from Nial and his inept crew for something arguably simpler in epidemiology.
I work everyday in IT with these data mining endeavours. Now we just have to apply "AI" or "ML" to our project titles to get funding but its the same game. There are brilliant insights to be gained from simple HUGE datasets sometimes where 80+% of the variables can be known and measured accurately. This has and likely will never be the case in impossibly complex systems like climate or disease.
As an example of the dishonest reporting of this study by the media (contributed to by the authors themselves), this crap from Science Daily exposes all the usual dirty tricks of the trade:
"A study offers new insights into the record 2021 Western North America heat wave
Combined unusual weather systems, supercharged by climate change.
The astounding western North America heat wave of 2021 broke records by tens of degrees, killed more than 1,000 people and sparked catastrophic wildfires. A new study affirms that it was driven largely by climate change, and for the first time comprehensively elucidates the multiple mechanisms.
Within weeks, scientists blamed the event's extremity largely on climate change. Now, a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change affirms that conclusion.
"It was so extreme, it's tempting to apply the label of a 'black swan' event, one that can't be predicted," said lead author Samuel Bartusek, a Ph.D. student at the Columbia Climate School's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.
The study pulled climate data starting in the 1950s together with daily weather observations from the weeks preceding and during the heat wave to form an intimate portrait. A core conclusion: Such an event would have been virtually impossible absent human-induced warming [AGAIN! IT WAS IMPOSSIBLE WITH GLOBAL WARMING!!]. It was impossible in the 1950s, but atmospheric warming since then has moved the needle to a prospective 1-in-200-year event -- still rare, but now feasible. The researchers predicts that if warming continues at even a moderate pace, such heat waves could hit the region about every 10 years by 2050.
"Global warming is gradually making the Pacific Northwest drier," said study coauthor Mingfang Ting, a Lamont-Doherty professor, pushing it into a long-term state where such extreme events are becoming ever more likely. [Where is the scientific evidence for this statement?]
"We can certainly expect more hot periods in this area and other areas, just due to the increase in global temperatures, and the way it shifts the probability of extreme events by huge amounts," said Bartusek.
This gives the game away. The authors of this paper (including PhD STUDENT Bartusek) are not scientists, they are political activists exploiting an extreme weather event to push the catastrophic climate change narrative.
They've been building these meteorological/climate models for decades only to prove time and time again that they're garbage.
The consistent failure of insilico modeling for complex systems is almost universal. This is much like the Imperial College Covid models from Nial and his inept crew for something arguably simpler in epidemiology.
I work everyday in IT with these data mining endeavours. Now we just have to apply "AI" or "ML" to our project titles to get funding but its the same game. There are brilliant insights to be gained from simple HUGE datasets sometimes where 80+% of the variables can be known and measured accurately. This has and likely will never be the case in impossibly complex systems like climate or disease.
As an example of the dishonest reporting of this study by the media (contributed to by the authors themselves), this crap from Science Daily exposes all the usual dirty tricks of the trade:
"A study offers new insights into the record 2021 Western North America heat wave
Combined unusual weather systems, supercharged by climate change.
The astounding western North America heat wave of 2021 broke records by tens of degrees, killed more than 1,000 people and sparked catastrophic wildfires. A new study affirms that it was driven largely by climate change, and for the first time comprehensively elucidates the multiple mechanisms.
Within weeks, scientists blamed the event's extremity largely on climate change. Now, a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change affirms that conclusion.
"It was so extreme, it's tempting to apply the label of a 'black swan' event, one that can't be predicted," said lead author Samuel Bartusek, a Ph.D. student at the Columbia Climate School's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.
The study pulled climate data starting in the 1950s together with daily weather observations from the weeks preceding and during the heat wave to form an intimate portrait. A core conclusion: Such an event would have been virtually impossible absent human-induced warming [AGAIN! IT WAS IMPOSSIBLE WITH GLOBAL WARMING!!]. It was impossible in the 1950s, but atmospheric warming since then has moved the needle to a prospective 1-in-200-year event -- still rare, but now feasible. The researchers predicts that if warming continues at even a moderate pace, such heat waves could hit the region about every 10 years by 2050.
"Global warming is gradually making the Pacific Northwest drier," said study coauthor Mingfang Ting, a Lamont-Doherty professor, pushing it into a long-term state where such extreme events are becoming ever more likely. [Where is the scientific evidence for this statement?]
"We can certainly expect more hot periods in this area and other areas, just due to the increase in global temperatures, and the way it shifts the probability of extreme events by huge amounts," said Bartusek.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/11/221125132145.htm
This gives the game away. The authors of this paper (including PhD STUDENT Bartusek) are not scientists, they are political activists exploiting an extreme weather event to push the catastrophic climate change narrative.