Hunga Tonga Warming Update

h/t Javier Vinos on X:

From the abstract:

The January 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai (HT) eruption injected sulfur dioxide and unprecedented amounts of water vapour (WV) into the stratosphere. Given the manifold impacts of previous volcanic eruptions, the full implications of these emissions are a topic of active research. This study explores the dynamical implications of the perturbed upper-atmospheric composition using an ensemble simulation with the Earth system model SOCOLv4. The simulations replicate the observed anomalies in the stratospheric and lower-mesospheric chemical composition and reveal a novel pathway linking water-rich volcanic eruptions to surface climate anomalies. We show that in early 2023 the excess WV caused significant negative anomalies in tropical upper-stratospheric and mesospheric ozone and temperature, forcing an atmospheric circulation response that particularly affected the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex (PV). The decreased temperature gradient leads to a weakening of the PV, which propagates downward similarly to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and drives surface anomalies via stratosphere–troposphere coupling. These results underscore the potential of HT to create favorable conditions for SSWs in subsequent winters as long as the near-stratopause cooling effect of excess WV persists. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between volcanic activity and climate dynamics and offer crucial insights for future climate modelling and attribution.

https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/3623/2025/

Science - real science - makes a comeback. We’ve had the bought and paid for ‘climate consensus’ science which insisted that HTHH could not possibly have driven the sudden spurt in global warming in 2023, based on simple radiative calculations only, now we’re getting proper science, investigating a poorly understood topic, using the eruption of Hunga Tonga as the laboratory.

Who knew? Me, I guess, and a few other people, including Javier.