October 2023 lower tropospheric mean temperature anomaly is just slightly above September, and a new record: If, as I suggested might happen, warming now starts to plateau, without a subsequent large drop characteristic of previous warming spikes due to El Ninos, then something very extraordinary is happening - and it’s not CO2, or methane emitted by humans, or any weird, unexplained ‘tipping point’ feedback caused by those emissions of greenhouse gases. The warming is also too soon and too strong to be due to the developing El Nino. It’s not man-made ‘climate change’ because there has been no sudden acceleration of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, only a sudden acceleration in warming. What on earth could be causing this?
I have talked to Bernie Lewin on my podcast, and he said the "equivalent of 6 million Olympic swimming pools" has been released into the atmosphere with Hunga Tonga. He clearly wanted to give me an idea of a relation: but can you confirm?
About 150 teragrams (i.e. 150 billion metric tonnes) of sea water was pumped into the stratosphere by the Tonga eruption. I've no idea how many tonnes of water your average Olympic size swimming pool contains, but the figure sounds about right!
To confirm that El Nino is not currently contributing significantly to global mean surface temperature and probably will not bump up temperatures as high as the super El Ninos of 1997/98 and 2015/16:
"This year’s El Niño is still developing, but researchers are looking to the recent past for clues as to how it is shaping up.
By October 1997 and 2015, large areas of the central and eastern Pacific had sea levels more than 7 inches (18 centimeters) higher than normal. This year, sea levels are about 2 or 3 inches (5 to 8 centimeters) higher than average and over a smaller area compared to the 1997 and 2015 events. Both of the past El Niños reached peak strength in late November or early December, so this year’s event may still intensify."
“Every El Niño is a little bit different,” said Josh Willis, Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich project scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. “This one seems modest compared to the big events, but it could still give us a wet winter here in the Southwest U.S. if conditions are right.”
As you have possibly observed, the Mann Made Climate Change cult are ignoring the stratospheric water vapour, saying it’s irrelevant, and acting as per their models.
However, at first the water vapour remained concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere concentrated around the volcano. From here it gradually spread across the Southern Hemisphere, then eventually crossed over early in 2023 to the Northern hemisphere.
They're making noises about the stratospheric ozone depletion caused by the water vapour though. This is OK because it doesn't detract from the global warming narrative.
Has anyone figured out or tried to figure out how much worse this would have been coming from a land based volcano instead of an underwater volcano. If that information is out there and available, could you provide a link?
Nov 3, 2023·edited Nov 3, 2023Liked by Jaime Jessop
The UK Met Office is one of the main deniers, not just of Hunga Tonga but of reputable science in general. Nowadays they are no more than blatant climate fearmongers, endlessly pumping out false, cherry-picked propaganda pieces. Paul Homewood debunks these with ease, usually by using their own data against them such as here on Storm Babet (including a dig at the latest Attenborough fearmongering): https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-climate-scaremongers-storm-babet-was-no-more-than-bad-weather/.
The Met Office used to publish observed temperature data in easy-to-understand graphs, for example their HadCET series (Hadley Centre Central England Temperatures), but I now can’t find these. As a reminder, their last published (as far as I can see) HadCET graph to March 2022, now carefully hidden, showing an unprecedented spike post-Hunga (January 2022) is here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/legacy/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate_3.gif.
I read Paul's latest about their ridiculous attempt to claim that Ciara has resulted in the lowest ever atmospheric pressure recorded in England & Wales.
The combination of a spring high tide, high winds and low atmospheric pressure caused the great North Sea flood of 1953. It caused massive damages, vastly more than anything seen in recent times, across England, Belgium and the Netherlands. Together these forces lifted the sea to 18 feet above mean sea level. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_flood_of_1953#Belgium.
I remember December 2013. I was living near the Wash at the time. The high tide was about 6 feet below the height of the very substantial sea wall. All other very high tides it just came a few feet up from the bottom of the wall. I believe that storm surge rivalled 1953 but flood defences were very much improved by 2013 so less devastation and loss of life.
Nov 3, 2023·edited Nov 3, 2023Liked by Jaime Jessop
It's been raining constantly here in the Northeast US this year. Constantly! It's reminding me more of Portland Oregon.
The moisture had to come from somewhere, perhaps that huge volcano is to blame. But let's face it, after 40+ years of trying to nail down weather forecast models that work, we've failed. There are simply too many variables and unknowns. We simply must adapt to what is.
Minimizing human pollution of all kinds is important for the health of humanity. In the 70's the US was covered in trash and vehicles were getting 10mpg... So improvements to help clean up our neighborhoods are good with careful measure. But to think we can direct the trajectory of global climate sure seems like nonsense.
Agreed! Upstate NY, finger lakes region. Although, it’s been quite cold including late and early frosts that decimated grape production at local wineries.
I do still strongly believe this to be related to the checkerboard patterns laid near daily (above avg temp days) across the sky. The FAA through its Weather Modification Association issues permits and licenses, which can be verified in hundreds of pilot’s LinkedIn pages. You can even hire one for your area.
“Night warming faster than day” yields dozens of peer-reviewed papers, which in turn shift the culprit to ‘persistent contrail formation from commercial jet traffic over western industrialized nations’. Sure 🤦♂️
Hunga and increased water vapor, certainly! But, can we test everyone’s rain after a streaky day? This is unlike the fear porn headlines, ‘everywhere warming faster than everywhere else in the world at the same time’. There is a real anamoly over the United States and Europe. With my UVC lux meter, I have detectable levels at ground height daily. Where did the ozone layer go above the eastern US?
Nov 3, 2023·edited Nov 3, 2023Liked by Jaime Jessop
Wow! The scale of that eruption is mind blowing, no wonder it’s also effecting the northern hemisphere. I just watched the clip below to get an idea about how big it was.
I have talked to Bernie Lewin on my podcast, and he said the "equivalent of 6 million Olympic swimming pools" has been released into the atmosphere with Hunga Tonga. He clearly wanted to give me an idea of a relation: but can you confirm?
About 150 teragrams (i.e. 150 billion metric tonnes) of sea water was pumped into the stratosphere by the Tonga eruption. I've no idea how many tonnes of water your average Olympic size swimming pool contains, but the figure sounds about right!
thanks, Jaime - this is helpful.
To confirm that El Nino is not currently contributing significantly to global mean surface temperature and probably will not bump up temperatures as high as the super El Ninos of 1997/98 and 2015/16:
"This year’s El Niño is still developing, but researchers are looking to the recent past for clues as to how it is shaping up.
By October 1997 and 2015, large areas of the central and eastern Pacific had sea levels more than 7 inches (18 centimeters) higher than normal. This year, sea levels are about 2 or 3 inches (5 to 8 centimeters) higher than average and over a smaller area compared to the 1997 and 2015 events. Both of the past El Niños reached peak strength in late November or early December, so this year’s event may still intensify."
“Every El Niño is a little bit different,” said Josh Willis, Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich project scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. “This one seems modest compared to the big events, but it could still give us a wet winter here in the Southwest U.S. if conditions are right.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/11/03/new-ocean-satellite-monitors-how-el-nino-is-shaping-up/
Excellent article as always Jaime
As you have possibly observed, the Mann Made Climate Change cult are ignoring the stratospheric water vapour, saying it’s irrelevant, and acting as per their models.
However, at first the water vapour remained concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere concentrated around the volcano. From here it gradually spread across the Southern Hemisphere, then eventually crossed over early in 2023 to the Northern hemisphere.
They're making noises about the stratospheric ozone depletion caused by the water vapour though. This is OK because it doesn't detract from the global warming narrative.
Has anyone figured out or tried to figure out how much worse this would have been coming from a land based volcano instead of an underwater volcano. If that information is out there and available, could you provide a link?
A land based volcanic eruption would add vast amounts of sulphur, which would have a cooling effect, for a period of months rather than years.
A land based volcano would not have injected vast amounts of sea water vapour into the stratosphere, so probably less warming.
The UK Met Office is one of the main deniers, not just of Hunga Tonga but of reputable science in general. Nowadays they are no more than blatant climate fearmongers, endlessly pumping out false, cherry-picked propaganda pieces. Paul Homewood debunks these with ease, usually by using their own data against them such as here on Storm Babet (including a dig at the latest Attenborough fearmongering): https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-climate-scaremongers-storm-babet-was-no-more-than-bad-weather/.
The Met Office used to publish observed temperature data in easy-to-understand graphs, for example their HadCET series (Hadley Centre Central England Temperatures), but I now can’t find these. As a reminder, their last published (as far as I can see) HadCET graph to March 2022, now carefully hidden, showing an unprecedented spike post-Hunga (January 2022) is here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/legacy/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate_3.gif.
The truth will out.
I read Paul's latest about their ridiculous attempt to claim that Ciara has resulted in the lowest ever atmospheric pressure recorded in England & Wales.
The combination of a spring high tide, high winds and low atmospheric pressure caused the great North Sea flood of 1953. It caused massive damages, vastly more than anything seen in recent times, across England, Belgium and the Netherlands. Together these forces lifted the sea to 18 feet above mean sea level. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_flood_of_1953#Belgium.
I remember December 2013. I was living near the Wash at the time. The high tide was about 6 feet below the height of the very substantial sea wall. All other very high tides it just came a few feet up from the bottom of the wall. I believe that storm surge rivalled 1953 but flood defences were very much improved by 2013 so less devastation and loss of life.
It's been raining constantly here in the Northeast US this year. Constantly! It's reminding me more of Portland Oregon.
The moisture had to come from somewhere, perhaps that huge volcano is to blame. But let's face it, after 40+ years of trying to nail down weather forecast models that work, we've failed. There are simply too many variables and unknowns. We simply must adapt to what is.
Minimizing human pollution of all kinds is important for the health of humanity. In the 70's the US was covered in trash and vehicles were getting 10mpg... So improvements to help clean up our neighborhoods are good with careful measure. But to think we can direct the trajectory of global climate sure seems like nonsense.
Agreed! Upstate NY, finger lakes region. Although, it’s been quite cold including late and early frosts that decimated grape production at local wineries.
I do still strongly believe this to be related to the checkerboard patterns laid near daily (above avg temp days) across the sky. The FAA through its Weather Modification Association issues permits and licenses, which can be verified in hundreds of pilot’s LinkedIn pages. You can even hire one for your area.
“Night warming faster than day” yields dozens of peer-reviewed papers, which in turn shift the culprit to ‘persistent contrail formation from commercial jet traffic over western industrialized nations’. Sure 🤦♂️
Hunga and increased water vapor, certainly! But, can we test everyone’s rain after a streaky day? This is unlike the fear porn headlines, ‘everywhere warming faster than everywhere else in the world at the same time’. There is a real anamoly over the United States and Europe. With my UVC lux meter, I have detectable levels at ground height daily. Where did the ozone layer go above the eastern US?
I worry we don’t ask the right questions.
Wow! The scale of that eruption is mind blowing, no wonder it’s also effecting the northern hemisphere. I just watched the clip below to get an idea about how big it was.
https://youtu.be/sZZVVwqZ0rs?si=qGBGd1aqKVXYZ8bY
Thanks. Fascinating.
The UN will soon have us all counting warm baths taken and kettles boiled.