Heatwave Deaths Propaganda
If heat kills, why did a lot more people die in summer 2021 compared to 2022?
Inevitably, as we proceed headlong into a chilly October, with the promise of high energy prices, blackouts and energy rationing during a long possibly harsh winter, and massive excess deaths due to the cold, the media is hyping the supposed excess deaths caused by the record breaking temperatures experienced (very briefly) in the UK this year. The ONS and UKHSA have joined forces to publish a study. Here’s how they explain what they’re doing:
ONS reports on mortality in regular weekly and monthly releases. UKHSA reports on mortality caused by specific public health incidents, such as periods of prolonged heat, in annual reports.
As both organisations publish on mortality during heat-periods, we have combined the releases to include both organisation’s statistics to give a more comprehensive picture and help users understand the difference.
The usual suspects in the media are salivating over this combined report, e.g. the usual misleading crap and ‘climate crisis’ propaganda in the eco-fascist Guardian:
More than 2,800 more people aged 65 and over died in England during this summer’s heatwaves than would have otherwise, figures show, marking the highest excess death toll caused by heat in at least two decades.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) recorded 43,755 non-Covid-related deaths of people in the 65-plus age group during this summer’s heatwaves in England.
This was 2,809 more deaths than would be expected based on the surrounding fortnight, the highest number since the introduction of the heatwave plan for England in 2004.
Bob Ward, from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science, said: “These figures confirm the fear that the record-breaking temperatures this summer caused a record number of deaths. Most of these deaths were preventable and the government refused to take additional precautions even though it knew its heatwave plan was not fit for purpose.
“The threat to lives and livelihoods from summer heatwaves is undoubtedly increasing due to climate change. The prime minister must now act decisively by initiating a national heat risk management strategy that can be properly put in place ahead of next summer and prevent further unnecessary suffering and death across the country.”
You can always rely on Knob Ward to turn the climate change bullshit dial right up to number 10. But note, they are talking exclusively about the UKHSA analysis here, which is an estimate of heat deaths based on a statistical model, not simply actual registered deaths, as with the ONS figures. I quote:
Across all five heat-periods of 2022, adjusting for registration delays, the estimated total excess mortality (excluding coronavirus (COVID-19)) in England was 2,803 for the most vulnerable age group (those aged 65 years and over), the highest number since the introduction of the Heatwave plan for England in 2004.
This analysis was compiled by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) using a statistical model to adjust for registration delays to estimate excess mortality (excluding COVID-19) during heat-periods.
It is important to note the differences between the UKHSA’s methodology for calculating heatwave excess deaths and that of the ONS. The fake news media doesn’t do this of course because their prime intention is to deceive and sell the public a narrative. The published report clearly sets out the differences:
4.Impact of methodological differences
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) measure refers to the number of deaths occurring during periods of heat (including all causes), whereas the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) estimated excess deaths (excluding coronavirus (COVID-19)) during heat-period figures are based on a statistical model. This makes an adjustment to account for registration delays. Interpretation of the analysis presented in this report should consider these differences in methodology.
Here is how the ONS count excess deaths:
Excess mortality during heat-periods
the deaths registered in England and Wales
all ages and broad age-group
all causes (combined and break down)
deaths that occurred and were registered by 7 September 2022
uses the five-year average as a baseline, or the preceding and subsequent days relative to the number of heat-period days.
Upwards of 90% of deaths are registered by 7 Sept, so this gives a pretty accurate picture of actual deaths occurring from all causes and for all ages, compared to the 5 year baseline.
Here’s how the UKHSA estimate their heatwave deaths:
Estimated excess mortality (excluding COVID-19) during heat-periods
the deaths registered in England
aged 65 years and over
removes deaths that tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19)
adjusts the number of deaths registered by 13 September 2022 to account for registration delays
uses a +/- two-week baseline (average daily deaths excluding COVID-19 across the 14 non-heat-period days before and after each heat-period)
So unlike the ONS, the UKHSA adjust the number of deaths to supposedly account for registration delays, they focus only on the over 65s and, crucially, they do not use a set baseline; they employ a constantly shifting baseline comprised of the 14 days before and after each heat period! Why the hell do that? In my opinion, it renders their results basically meaningless and certainly very difficult to compare with excess deaths during other years, which the media does, explicitly pointing out that the number of excess deaths was the highest “since the introduction of the heatwave plan for England in 2004.” So what? That statement is meaningless when the baseline they are referencing is not average excess heat period deaths measured over several years, but an average based on a couple of weeks before and after the excess deaths occurred! Absurd. They may argue that this gives a more accurate, real-time estimate of the impact of the specific heat period but I’m fairly sure there are many confounding influences which might muddy this simple picture.
The ONS analysis is even more intriguing. Here’s their graph of excess mortality during heat periods for the years 2016-22.
You will note that 2022 doesn’t stand out at all as being particularly unusual. 2021 does though. There might be a few more deaths to be added during September 2022, but it’s not going to make a great deal of difference. Here is what the ONS say:
From June to September each year, the average number of deaths per day was higher on heat-period than non-heat-period days. This was largest in 2021 (191 more deaths on heat-period than non-heat-period days on average) which saw a record high temperature of 32.2°C on 22 July 2021. Data for 2022 are to August and subject to registration delays. While ONS expect around 92.3% of deaths occurring during this time have been registered (based on 2012 to 2021), comparisons of 2022 with previous years should be treated with caution.
Wait, what? “Record high temperature of 32.2C on 22 July 2021”. It wasn’t a record in any sense of the word; that just happened to be the highest daily maximum temperature recorded all summer, which is hardly outstanding as English summers go! In fact, summer 2021 was pretty average, especially in comparison to summer 2022 where England saw temperature in excess of 35C on quite a few days and recorded 40+C on the 19th July at several widely separated stations in southern and eastern England. So if very high temperatures are killing people, we would expect 2022 to record more deaths than 2021, notwithstanding adjustments for humidity, but I doubt there was a significant difference between the two summers as regards that particular aspect. Why did a lot more people die in 2021?
The report gives a lot of confusing data about 2022 and various other years, but for a comparison of 2022 with 2021, in the context of the five year period 2016-2021, we have the following:
3,271 excess deaths have been recorded during heat-periods in 2022 in England and Wales. This is an average of 82 excess deaths per day, and 6.2% higher than the five-year average.
The heat-period with the largest number of excess deaths was H2 (10 to 25 July) with 2,227 excess deaths (10.4% above average), an average of 139 excess deaths per day.
From 2016 to 2021, deaths were above the five-year average in every heat-period, with a total of 12,598 excess deaths (9.3% above average, 119 average excess deaths per day).
In England, from 2016 to 2021, observed deaths were above the five-year average in every heat-period, with excess deaths ranging from 149 (28 to 30 June 2019) to 1,858 (16 to 23 July 2021). This was not the case for Wales, where excess ranged from 29 deaths below average (2 to 9 August 2018) to 185 deaths above average (16 to 23 July 2021)
So, in 2021, there were 1858+185 (=2043) excess deaths in England and Wales from 16-23 July (8 days). This gives a daily excess death rate of 2043/8=255. Compare this to 10-25 July 2022 when the daily excess was 139. So, we must ask the question: why were so many more people dying in 2021 during a heat period in mid July (which was a lot less severe and prolonged than the heat period in mid July 2022)? If it was primarily heat stress which was killing people, this doesn’t make sense.
It gets even more confusing when the ONS reveal that it is only over 70s who experienced these excess death rates during heat periods in 2022 and in fact, people under 70 generally were less likely to die than expected. Here is the graph of excess deaths for summer 2022 divided into those aged 70 and older and those under 70.
You can clearly see that even during the peak heat period, excess deaths of under 70s barely rose above the 5 year average and were below average for most of the time, whereas deaths in the over 70s were soaring. How does that work?
Sure, older people are generally more susceptible to heat stress, thus might be expected to succumb at a greater rate than younger people, but we were told that with 40C+ temperatures, even the young would be dropping dead from heat stress. That’s what they said. In their thousands they said. In fact, it was the UKHSA who were saying that even the fit and healthy would succumb. Now they’re telling us it was only the over 65s.
Thousands of people could die in the coming heatwave, experts have warned, as the government triggered the first ever national emergency heat red alert with a record 40C (104F) temperature forecast for south-east England on Tuesday.
The level 4 heat alert announced for Monday and Tuesday by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) means “illness and death may occur among the fit and healthy, and not just in high-risk groups”.
My general impression is that heatwave deaths in 2022 are being hyped for political reasons during a period when excess deaths in general are running very high and have been doing so even outside of so called climate changed heatwaves. It is clear that there is some link between heat stress and death but it is not at all obvious that heat stress is the main cause of mortality. Something was killing a lot of people during the unremarkable summer of 2021. It wasn’t degrees Celsius. I wonder what it was?
Jaime, Thank you for bringing your forensic skills to bear yet again. Please keep at it.
At my age (70s), I find it difficult to fathom the "it's worse than we thought" mentality which seems to have become so pervasive in the last couple of decades or more. A number of factors, perhaps: poorer ejukashun, gormless acceptance of "elite" pronouncements, more gullible MSM, the wildfire spread of what is essentially propaganda through soshul meeja. and so on.
These clots are not scientists. As Gary points out, if they were, they'd be working strenuously to disprove their own hypotheses. (I nearly wrote "prejudices" there.) Richard Feynman would take a rather dim view!
Thanks for the analysis, and calling out the bull***t. This is using statistics [cherry picking data and using models] to "prove" ideology is getting silly. You are right that excess deaths have been consistently high for weeks before and after the two days or so of heat, and hence in no way can all the excess deaths which occurred in that short window be claimed as due to heat. And isn't interesting how the government and media are silent on all those other excess deaths before and after...