I did warn you. It’s basically confirmed now: Contrary to earlier speculations, the likelihood of a solar grand minimum in the 21st century is becoming increasingly remote. Similarly, predictions that the current extended solar minimum would lead to a marked decrease in temperature are incorrect.
This is an interesting development. I think it's too early to declare the emperor dead just as it was too early in the late 90s to turn over all our futures to a 'hockey stick' that turned out to be noise. We have to learn to be patient when the time constants of these processes are decades or centuries.
Yes there is a real link between solar and climate, I don't think that is being denied. But if the sun is cooling how come temperatures are getting hotter?
What we can say for sure is that we have missed the deadline for the start of the grand solar minimum predicted by Valentina Zharkova and others. SC26 will need to be extraordinarily weak in order for a delayed GSM to be a realistic prospect.
You've likely seen Ethical Skeptic's twitter posts? His conclusion is that at least part of the warming we are seeing is coming from the earth's core, especially the rapid warmup of the oceans.
"Yes, it is generally acknowledged by mainstream science and society at large that our planet’s oceans are heating very fast.1 2 3 4 The result of this warming is an increasingly unhealthy environment for our ocean’s flora, fishes, microbiota, mollusks, crustaceans, and fauna. To varying degrees, this emergent condition threatens everything which lives on planet Earth. The vast preponderance of scientists agree that we are well underway on the sixth mass, or what could be reasonably titled, Anthropocene Extinction. Much of this the result of extreme and recent climate change brought about through man’s activity."
Okay, so ES does believe humans are causing some (a lot?) of the warming. I also believe we're creating some warming (how can you double the CO2 in the atmosphere and that not have an effect?) The question is how much warming and how fast will it occur. Here's a post by a climate scientist who does believe we're warming the planet, but he emphasizes we have at least 100 years to come up with solutions, and we are NOT in a "climate emergency" or at a "climate tipping point". The damage we will do by freaking out and implementing controls and taxes and who knows what else will be far greater than the damage that will come our way due to climate change.
We've got quite a way to go before CO2 is double pre-industrial concentration of 280ppm. It's about 420ppm, which is a 50% increase. I believe that the warming from increased concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is very moderate, not significant in comparison to warming caused by natural processes. Remember, rapid man-made greenhouse gas warming is dependent upon the 'enhanced' greenhouse effect, where increases in water vapour (a far more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2) add greatly to the very modest contribution to global warming caused by direct CO2 radiative forcing. I think the models greatly overestimate the enhanced greenhouse effect and thus greatly overestimate climate sensitivity to increasing CO2. They also greatly underestimate natural internal variability and solar forcing and do not accurately quantify the effects of clouds.
You're right about the doubling. I was thinking that the expectation is that we would double the CO2 concentration "soon", but I see now that the projection is it's about 40 or 50 years out.
You're also right that the models have been wrong, so they are likely to continue to be wrong.
After Solar Max will be a Modern Cosmic Ray Max, and if the magnetic excursion keeps accelerating that could become very very hairy. Temperature changes are normal..
This is an interesting development. I think it's too early to declare the emperor dead just as it was too early in the late 90s to turn over all our futures to a 'hockey stick' that turned out to be noise. We have to learn to be patient when the time constants of these processes are decades or centuries.
Yes there is a real link between solar and climate, I don't think that is being denied. But if the sun is cooling how come temperatures are getting hotter?
The sun isn't cooling.
I wouldn't put my money on anything at the moment Jaime, stochastic systems are very tricksy things!
The way I see it, all bets are off!
Interesting times...
What we can say for sure is that we have missed the deadline for the start of the grand solar minimum predicted by Valentina Zharkova and others. SC26 will need to be extraordinarily weak in order for a delayed GSM to be a realistic prospect.
You've likely seen Ethical Skeptic's twitter posts? His conclusion is that at least part of the warming we are seeing is coming from the earth's core, especially the rapid warmup of the oceans.
https://theethicalskeptic.com/
"Yes, it is generally acknowledged by mainstream science and society at large that our planet’s oceans are heating very fast.1 2 3 4 The result of this warming is an increasingly unhealthy environment for our ocean’s flora, fishes, microbiota, mollusks, crustaceans, and fauna. To varying degrees, this emergent condition threatens everything which lives on planet Earth. The vast preponderance of scientists agree that we are well underway on the sixth mass, or what could be reasonably titled, Anthropocene Extinction. Much of this the result of extreme and recent climate change brought about through man’s activity."
I can't really agree with that.
Okay, so ES does believe humans are causing some (a lot?) of the warming. I also believe we're creating some warming (how can you double the CO2 in the atmosphere and that not have an effect?) The question is how much warming and how fast will it occur. Here's a post by a climate scientist who does believe we're warming the planet, but he emphasizes we have at least 100 years to come up with solutions, and we are NOT in a "climate emergency" or at a "climate tipping point". The damage we will do by freaking out and implementing controls and taxes and who knows what else will be far greater than the damage that will come our way due to climate change.
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/11/climate-tipping-points-real-threats-or.html
We've got quite a way to go before CO2 is double pre-industrial concentration of 280ppm. It's about 420ppm, which is a 50% increase. I believe that the warming from increased concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is very moderate, not significant in comparison to warming caused by natural processes. Remember, rapid man-made greenhouse gas warming is dependent upon the 'enhanced' greenhouse effect, where increases in water vapour (a far more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2) add greatly to the very modest contribution to global warming caused by direct CO2 radiative forcing. I think the models greatly overestimate the enhanced greenhouse effect and thus greatly overestimate climate sensitivity to increasing CO2. They also greatly underestimate natural internal variability and solar forcing and do not accurately quantify the effects of clouds.
You're right about the doubling. I was thinking that the expectation is that we would double the CO2 concentration "soon", but I see now that the projection is it's about 40 or 50 years out.
You're also right that the models have been wrong, so they are likely to continue to be wrong.
After Solar Max will be a Modern Cosmic Ray Max, and if the magnetic excursion keeps accelerating that could become very very hairy. Temperature changes are normal..