So the climate models are wrong. Who would have thought?
I think it was Norman Fenton who said "all models are wrong; some models are useful".
Richard Feynman (Nobel Prize in Physics) pointed out that “It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.”
I didn’t have time to go into this fully yesterday and still haven’t, despite it being very important, as I think it gets to the heart of the CO2 global warming scam. If the Met Office et al were honest, I would expect to be hearing discussion about how the Hunga Tonga global warming spike compares to past El Nino global warming spikes, as shown by Roy Spencer’s UAH graph: https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/.
Hunga Tonga exploded massive quantities of water vapour high into the stratosphere. Some explosion, or did in only get it so far up and was then carried further up by other natural forces?
If we think about ENSO La Nina and El Nino events, they centre on the east-west surface flow across the Central Pacific. In La Nina, upwelled cold water prevails while in EL Nino, heating from the sun prevails to heat the surface waters. This new heat somehow then dissipates to the far corners of the globe. Presumably evaporation is a main factor, lifting water vapour high into the atmosphere …
My point is that that the global warming mechanism for Hunga Tonga is probably not so different from what happens in an El Nino, both resulting in warming spikes at a rate of say 0.5°C per few months, much faster than the alleged warming effect of CO2. I believe this is why they are so desperate the suppress Hunga Tonga. It is because it exposes that the periods of global warming and global cooling that we have seen over the past hundred years and more have been caused by ENSO events which look to be the main drivers of the regular AMO cycle.
I’ll end by repeating a comment I left against Jaime’s previous post in reply to pimaCanyon asking what could be the cause of changing global cloud cover:
Presumably the same or similar natural climate variability that gives us the regularly-recurring 60 to 70-year cycle of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which maps neatly onto past periods of global cooling and global warming. This periodicity shows up in the Multivariate ENSO index graph from 1980, with a preponderance of warming El Ninos up to the turn of the century (the AMO warming phase) followed by a preponderance of cooling El Ninos to the present time, corresponding to the plateau AMO warm phase waning into its cooling phase: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/.
The same graph extended back to 1950 shows a preponderance of cooling La Ninas up to the mid-70s, corresponding the AMO cooling/cold phase which led to the global cooling scare of that time: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei.old/.
Its the natural events denial - like the natural immunity denial. If natural events are off the table, then when natural events occur, it is "unprecedented" and "scientists are baffled". This shows that the "climate scientists" and their models cannot and do not understand the climate and cannot predict it.
"We don’t know what caused it but (plucks excuse from anus) it's your fault...dismantle capitalism now"
Give it a year or two and the algoreithms and data will be fudged to explain this away, just as they explained the (now gone) pause and the (also gone) post ww2 cool down - all to fit the single explanation for their existence (funding). Lysenko wept.
Ah, more "Settled Science" from the scientifically illiterate "Usual Suspects" that wouldn't know an entropy-enthalpy diagram if it bit them on the ass...
I’m amazed when I hear people I consider intelligent (beginning to wonder) repeating these stories as fact without actually looking at the evidence presented. Without considering historical data. Without asking if it’s logical
These charlatans will do anything to downplay Hunga Tonga which is the obvious cause of the unprecedented 2023 global warming spike. They do so because Hunga Tonga demonstrates that atmospheric water vapour is a much more potent global warning agent than their precious CO2.
I’m not an expert on the science of natural global warming but the steep leading-edge of the 2023 global warming spike closely mirrors that of past El Nino warming spikes. There is probably a good scientific reason for that which these shysters don’t want to admit: https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/.
The neat thing about Hunga Tonga is that it 'outs' the fake, paid-for scientists in real time. Either you acknowledge that humans really can't meaningfully impact global temperatures compared to the forces of nature, or you, embarrassingly, completely ignore data from current events and resort back to using modeling to try and prove your point. It's similar to the inconvenient fact of natural immunity (otherwise known as regular old 'immunity') and watching people embarrass themselves by suggesting that human immune systems only work when you get and injection from a doctor. It's a nice little litmus test to see who is legit and who is owned.
Everything now has to be suspect. Was there ever a unique disease called COVID? How many people died? How many have been hurt by the vax? Etc. All lies. Was last year warmer than average? Certainly not in my area. I don’t think ANYTHING can be believed if it comes from ANY institution.
So the climate models are wrong. Who would have thought?
I think it was Norman Fenton who said "all models are wrong; some models are useful".
Richard Feynman (Nobel Prize in Physics) pointed out that “It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.”
Now we know.
I didn’t have time to go into this fully yesterday and still haven’t, despite it being very important, as I think it gets to the heart of the CO2 global warming scam. If the Met Office et al were honest, I would expect to be hearing discussion about how the Hunga Tonga global warming spike compares to past El Nino global warming spikes, as shown by Roy Spencer’s UAH graph: https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/.
Hunga Tonga exploded massive quantities of water vapour high into the stratosphere. Some explosion, or did in only get it so far up and was then carried further up by other natural forces?
If we think about ENSO La Nina and El Nino events, they centre on the east-west surface flow across the Central Pacific. In La Nina, upwelled cold water prevails while in EL Nino, heating from the sun prevails to heat the surface waters. This new heat somehow then dissipates to the far corners of the globe. Presumably evaporation is a main factor, lifting water vapour high into the atmosphere …
My point is that that the global warming mechanism for Hunga Tonga is probably not so different from what happens in an El Nino, both resulting in warming spikes at a rate of say 0.5°C per few months, much faster than the alleged warming effect of CO2. I believe this is why they are so desperate the suppress Hunga Tonga. It is because it exposes that the periods of global warming and global cooling that we have seen over the past hundred years and more have been caused by ENSO events which look to be the main drivers of the regular AMO cycle.
I’ll end by repeating a comment I left against Jaime’s previous post in reply to pimaCanyon asking what could be the cause of changing global cloud cover:
Presumably the same or similar natural climate variability that gives us the regularly-recurring 60 to 70-year cycle of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which maps neatly onto past periods of global cooling and global warming. This periodicity shows up in the Multivariate ENSO index graph from 1980, with a preponderance of warming El Ninos up to the turn of the century (the AMO warming phase) followed by a preponderance of cooling El Ninos to the present time, corresponding to the plateau AMO warm phase waning into its cooling phase: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/.
The same graph extended back to 1950 shows a preponderance of cooling La Ninas up to the mid-70s, corresponding the AMO cooling/cold phase which led to the global cooling scare of that time: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei.old/.
Its the natural events denial - like the natural immunity denial. If natural events are off the table, then when natural events occur, it is "unprecedented" and "scientists are baffled". This shows that the "climate scientists" and their models cannot and do not understand the climate and cannot predict it.
"We don’t know what caused it but (plucks excuse from anus) it's your fault...dismantle capitalism now"
Give it a year or two and the algoreithms and data will be fudged to explain this away, just as they explained the (now gone) pause and the (also gone) post ww2 cool down - all to fit the single explanation for their existence (funding). Lysenko wept.
Ah, more "Settled Science" from the scientifically illiterate "Usual Suspects" that wouldn't know an entropy-enthalpy diagram if it bit them on the ass...
I’m amazed when I hear people I consider intelligent (beginning to wonder) repeating these stories as fact without actually looking at the evidence presented. Without considering historical data. Without asking if it’s logical
Schmidt 8s an idiot who is getting paid not to say Honda tonga
These charlatans will do anything to downplay Hunga Tonga which is the obvious cause of the unprecedented 2023 global warming spike. They do so because Hunga Tonga demonstrates that atmospheric water vapour is a much more potent global warning agent than their precious CO2.
I’m not an expert on the science of natural global warming but the steep leading-edge of the 2023 global warming spike closely mirrors that of past El Nino warming spikes. There is probably a good scientific reason for that which these shysters don’t want to admit: https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/.
"I’m not an expert on the science of natural global warming". Neither am I, and I'm becoming convinced that no one else is either.
The neat thing about Hunga Tonga is that it 'outs' the fake, paid-for scientists in real time. Either you acknowledge that humans really can't meaningfully impact global temperatures compared to the forces of nature, or you, embarrassingly, completely ignore data from current events and resort back to using modeling to try and prove your point. It's similar to the inconvenient fact of natural immunity (otherwise known as regular old 'immunity') and watching people embarrass themselves by suggesting that human immune systems only work when you get and injection from a doctor. It's a nice little litmus test to see who is legit and who is owned.
Great comment, Benjamin. You have made valid points.
If the warming occurred.
I think there can be little doubt that it did. UAH satellite data confirms it.
Everything now has to be suspect. Was there ever a unique disease called COVID? How many people died? How many have been hurt by the vax? Etc. All lies. Was last year warmer than average? Certainly not in my area. I don’t think ANYTHING can be believed if it comes from ANY institution.