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Gary Sharpe's avatar

Have you looked into Plate Climatology Theory, including that El Nina's themselves are due to underwater volcanic activity, not unrelated to Hunga Tonga? https://www.plateclimatology.com/geologist-how-geologic-factors-generate-el-nino-and-la-nina-events

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Jaime Jessop's avatar

I'm open to all suggestions as to what drives the ENSO cycle, because it's definitely not settled science. But it's a fact that scientists can predict beforehand the emergence of an El Nino or La Nina by measuring and monitoring a large array of atmospheric and oceanic indices. I don't find this explanation of how those indices themselves are related via cause/effect to geological forces very convincing. It's far too vague for my liking:

"Side Effects Vs Root Cause

Scientists attempting to decipher what force or forces generate and maintain El Ninos and La Ninas use the vast amount of atmospheric and oceanic data to formulate their conclusions.

Utilizing this data scientists have found correlations of trade winds, ocean currents, climate phenomenon, and climate to the formation of El Ninos and La Ninas. it shows these correlations are side effects of geologically induced El Ninos and La Ninas.

This is not to say that all changes in trade winds, ocean currents, climate phenomena, and climate are related to geological forces. Rather, during El Ninos and La Ninas, changes in the above parameters are caused by geological forces."

To prove a definite cause-effect correlation, you would have to demonstrate beyond reasonable doubt that geological changes consistently precede atmospheric/oceanic changes. I don't think this can be done at present.

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Gary Sharpe's avatar

Could you mark on the graphs previous el nino caused spikes for comparison?

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David Walker's avatar

Interesting headline from the generally climate alarmist Daily Mail:

"Terrifying maps reveal the three areas of the globe that will experience record-breaking temperatures this year thanks to El Niño"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13140713/maps-record-breaking-temperatures-El-Ni-o.html

Note, ascribed to El Niño, not Global Boiling!

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Jaime Jessop's avatar

Yep, that's based on the junk scientific paper cited by the Guardian.

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David Paterson's avatar

Certainly looks interesting, change to La Niña, what will change with Tonga stratospheric water vapour.

Personally, I’m looking more at the retention of solar heat in the oceans. We are seeing a lot of junk science saying the atmosphere is heating the oceans. It’s time to point the finger at NET ZERO policies, which have and will continue to reduce cloud condensation nuclei/ aerosols, which will allow more solar heat to reach the surface.

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Gary Sharpe's avatar

With the 1000 fold difference in densities (thermal mass?) it is difficult to see how the atmosphere can heat the oceans. There is also the connection between geology and atmosphere and oceans, especially underwater volcanic activity at depths more generally, to account for ... https://www.plateclimatology.com/ https://theethicalskeptic.com/2020/02/16/the-climate-change-alternative-we-ignore-to-our-peril/

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