Here in the Western Pacific I'm pretty sure we're seeing an abnormally low number of typhoons so far this year. Admittedly we've have 3 in the last 10 days or so and one more building up for next week. But we're only on typhoon 10 and getting close to the end of August
Yes, but I feel the more direct driver may be the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). I suspect that what has happened is that Pacific climate variability has become more strongly coupled to Atlantic climate variability and that the NAO is the dominant driver, not ENSO. This might explain the extraordinary jump in Atlantic sea surface temperatures in March 2023 and now the corresponding sharp decline. I shall be writing about this when I manage to get my thoughts together and do some more research. As ever, observations can always get in the way of a good theory and it remains to be seen what happens in August and beyond.
This YouTuber reporting on a paper / study that claims that all water from Hunga Tonga now gone from the stratosphere and therefore can’t be cause of recent heating!! Obvs gotta be the CO2!!!! 🤨. As a layman your science sounds more plausible and not corrupt Jaime.
He's talking nonsense. The cooling aerosols had largely disappeared from the atmosphere by mid 2023, ironically because of accelerated removal due to the large volume of stratospheric water vapour. The stratospheric water vapour itself at that time was more dispersed, but still present in the stratosphere and it will decline only slowly over the next few years.
“Hunga Tonga … The experts appear not to have thought of this.”. I’m sure they have thought of this but are desperate to suppress all news of it, as they have done by globally-coordinated censorship for over two years now. This is because Hunga Tonga has dramatically shown that atmospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas compared to the damp squib of atmospheric CO2 whose global warming impact is already saturated. Just look at the unprecedented spike in global temperatures which Hunga Tonga has caused, quite different from any recently recorded powerful El Nino, e.g. 1998 and 2016: https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2024_v6_20x9-scaled.jpg.
This is central to the entire climate change hoax because, if all these so-called experts were honest instead of being professional liars, they would have to concede that there is no need to reduce global CO2 emissions at all.
Can you explain further how Hunga Tong explains this? They will still come up with a way to blame this on man made CO2. This means all the climate models are now utterly disproven because none of them predicts it [and they don't even now which phyics is missing that could explain it!].
The huge amount of water vapour in the stratosphere depletes ozone which in turn has knock-on effects on the upper level jet streams which then feed down into weather patterns in the lower troposphere. There was a study published earlier this year which, although it didn't admit to HT causing significant global warming, did predict substantial disruption to global weather patterns. I wrote about it here:
and isn't H2O the most powerful and significant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, way more prevalent and significant than CO2. And is H2O in the stratosphere is even more effective at trapping heat than it is in the lower atmosphere?
Also, didn't Hunga Tonga increase H2O vapor in the stratosphere by a significant amount?
Yes, H2O is a far more powerful GHG than CO2 (not sure about the relative effectiveness in the stratosphere vs, troposhere - would need to check - but we should note that there is a lot more water vapour, even now, in the troposphere than in the stratosphere) but I suspect that the changes we are seeing are not primarily driven by the direct radiative forcing of water vapour in the stratosphere feeding down to the surface. I suspect alterations to global circulation and weather patterns caused by the increase in strat water vapour are more significant.
I am sick of and totally disgusted by "the experts" in climate "science", in medicine, in ALL the 3 letter agencies of our Federal government, like the lying liars in BLS who yesterday admitted they had overstated--LIED--about number of jobs added in the year April 2023 thru March 2024 by nearly ONE MILLION JOBS! We could just laugh at them, ridicule them, if they didn't have so much power. Power to mandate poison injections, power to wreck the global economy with their climate fear mongering, power to prop up a corrupt government with their phony jobs numbers.
Here in the Western Pacific I'm pretty sure we're seeing an abnormally low number of typhoons so far this year. Admittedly we've have 3 in the last 10 days or so and one more building up for next week. But we're only on typhoon 10 and getting close to the end of August
Could it be anything to do with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation being by now established in the negative phase of its ~60 - 65 year cycle?
Yes, but I feel the more direct driver may be the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). I suspect that what has happened is that Pacific climate variability has become more strongly coupled to Atlantic climate variability and that the NAO is the dominant driver, not ENSO. This might explain the extraordinary jump in Atlantic sea surface temperatures in March 2023 and now the corresponding sharp decline. I shall be writing about this when I manage to get my thoughts together and do some more research. As ever, observations can always get in the way of a good theory and it remains to be seen what happens in August and beyond.
This YouTuber reporting on a paper / study that claims that all water from Hunga Tonga now gone from the stratosphere and therefore can’t be cause of recent heating!! Obvs gotta be the CO2!!!! 🤨. As a layman your science sounds more plausible and not corrupt Jaime.
Check out the video
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cGgmVWl0TXU
He's talking nonsense. The cooling aerosols had largely disappeared from the atmosphere by mid 2023, ironically because of accelerated removal due to the large volume of stratospheric water vapour. The stratospheric water vapour itself at that time was more dispersed, but still present in the stratosphere and it will decline only slowly over the next few years.
Thanks for reply Jaime!! As a lay person I guessed he was chatting out of his rear end and no doubt paid to do so!!!!!
“Hunga Tonga … The experts appear not to have thought of this.”. I’m sure they have thought of this but are desperate to suppress all news of it, as they have done by globally-coordinated censorship for over two years now. This is because Hunga Tonga has dramatically shown that atmospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas compared to the damp squib of atmospheric CO2 whose global warming impact is already saturated. Just look at the unprecedented spike in global temperatures which Hunga Tonga has caused, quite different from any recently recorded powerful El Nino, e.g. 1998 and 2016: https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2024_v6_20x9-scaled.jpg.
This is central to the entire climate change hoax because, if all these so-called experts were honest instead of being professional liars, they would have to concede that there is no need to reduce global CO2 emissions at all.
Can you explain further how Hunga Tong explains this? They will still come up with a way to blame this on man made CO2. This means all the climate models are now utterly disproven because none of them predicts it [and they don't even now which phyics is missing that could explain it!].
The huge amount of water vapour in the stratosphere depletes ozone which in turn has knock-on effects on the upper level jet streams which then feed down into weather patterns in the lower troposphere. There was a study published earlier this year which, although it didn't admit to HT causing significant global warming, did predict substantial disruption to global weather patterns. I wrote about it here:
https://jaimejessop.substack.com/p/the-hunga-tonga-global-warming-con
and isn't H2O the most powerful and significant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, way more prevalent and significant than CO2. And is H2O in the stratosphere is even more effective at trapping heat than it is in the lower atmosphere?
Also, didn't Hunga Tonga increase H2O vapor in the stratosphere by a significant amount?
Yes, H2O is a far more powerful GHG than CO2 (not sure about the relative effectiveness in the stratosphere vs, troposhere - would need to check - but we should note that there is a lot more water vapour, even now, in the troposphere than in the stratosphere) but I suspect that the changes we are seeing are not primarily driven by the direct radiative forcing of water vapour in the stratosphere feeding down to the surface. I suspect alterations to global circulation and weather patterns caused by the increase in strat water vapour are more significant.
thanks!
I am sick of and totally disgusted by "the experts" in climate "science", in medicine, in ALL the 3 letter agencies of our Federal government, like the lying liars in BLS who yesterday admitted they had overstated--LIED--about number of jobs added in the year April 2023 thru March 2024 by nearly ONE MILLION JOBS! We could just laugh at them, ridicule them, if they didn't have so much power. Power to mandate poison injections, power to wreck the global economy with their climate fear mongering, power to prop up a corrupt government with their phony jobs numbers.