Betts Of The Met (Office) On Twitter Spouting Nonsense About Heavy Rain And Climate Change In Exeter
h/t Lapogus
My attention was drawn to this tweet by professor Ricard Betts on Twitter:
He then waffled on and on about the alleged link between global warming and more extreme rainfall because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, Clausius-Clapeyron, etc. etc. blah, blah, blah. The usual climate alarmist talking points. But he’s got evidence too! Hence this tweet:
Golden Rule: whenever a climastrologist presents you with evidence of a ‘clear signal of climate change’ and provides a link, go to the link. So I did. This is what I found.
This is what the authors say:
When considering the wettest day of the year (RX1day) as L(t), there is a clear signal of increasing extreme rainfall, but the pattern is strikingly different to the mean. This signal is visible across large parts of the United Kingdom, even in regions where there are only small changes in mean rainfall. The signal has only clearly emerged in a few locations (Figure 5), but the spatial average of RX1day across the United Kingdom suggests an increase in extreme rainfall amounts of around 4 mm (or 11%) per K of GMST change (Figure S9), which is around 8% per K of U.K. temperature change, approximately consistent with Clausius-Clapeyron expectations (Pall et al., 2007).
Source: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL086259
A clear signal has only emerged in a few locations - again, most heavily concentrated in western Scotland. The 11% increase is a spatial average. The top panels show increase in annual mean rainfall which, as you can see, is largely limited to the west coasts of Scotland, some in Wales and North West England. The bottom panels show extreme one day rainfall. Notice something? The West Country (including Exeter) shows no increase in extreme one day rainfall and there is no evidence of a clear signal to noise ratio for increased one day rainfall. In fact the opposite is true: the West Country evinces quite a clear drying signal in terms of one day rainfall!
Betts is such a clown, but he gets away with this nonsense on Twitter unfortunately.
I've come across him before and he's the archetypal elitist and fraud. Uses his academic qualifications, his academic institution and the IPPC to try and close people down. If you are OK with it I will screenshot your graphic and ask him what the red means in the southwest. I'll link your substack article if I can but don't think Twitter allows it now.
Spatial average they bamboozle with terminology science says if a 4th grader can’t understand it it’s bull shit.