It can’t be long. They never miss a trick these people. An almost ‘unprecedented’ winter storm of this magnitude will be too hard to resist; a near perfect example of extreme weather affecting hundreds of millions of people; Americans and Canadians trying to celebrate Christmas, no less. No matter that it involves extreme
Thought you might be interested if you haven't seen this already: the YT algo directed me to this podcast by L D den Boer in which he subjects the IPCC claims to actual physics and draws some comforting conclusions. The science bit starts at around 22 minutes.
Here we go. Right on cue. This is in the WaPo - date stamped Dec 23rd, so they were at it even before I wrote this article it would seem. Premature ejaculation of climate change BS from the spinmeisters at the MSM:
Research suggests that climate change is altering the jet stream, pushing frigid air down to southern climes more frequently. But the scientific jury is still out.
The data is clear: Rising global temperatures mean winters are getting milder, on average, and the sort of record-setting cold that spanned the country Friday is becoming rarer. But at the same time, global warming may be altering atmospheric patterns and pushing harsh outbreaks of polar air to normally moderate climates, according to scientists who are actively debating the link.
Drastic changes in the Arctic, which is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, are at the center of the discussion. Shifts in Arctic ice and snow cover are triggering atmospheric patterns that allow polar air to spread southward more often, according to recent research.
“We’ve seen the same situation basically the last three years in a row,” said Jennifer Francis, senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts. “Here we go again.”
But understanding any link between planetary warming and extreme cold remains a work in progress. Many climate scientists still emphasize that even if frigid air escapes the Arctic more often, that air will nonetheless become milder over time.
More than a million without power as frigid air overtakes eastern U.S.
The debate started with a research paper Francis co-authored in 2012. It gets revived whenever an extreme-cold event creates headlines, such as in 2021, when Texas’s energy grid was overwhelmed by a storm that killed 246 people.
Francis’s research hypothesized that Arctic warming was reducing the contrast between polar and tropical temperatures, weakening the jet stream, a band of strong winds in the upper atmosphere that helps guide weather patterns. A weaker jet stream would allow weather systems to more easily swing from the Arctic down into mid-latitude regions that typically have temperate climates.
Since then, observations of jet stream patterns have not confirmed the hypothesis, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA. But the research inspired a flurry of follow-up studies that Swain expects will eventually clarify a link between climate change and cold-weather outbreaks.
“We’re 10 years into this conversation and there’s still a lot of mixed feelings in the scientific community, though there is some tantalizing evidence that there is some ‘there’ there,” said Swain, who works at UCLA’s Institute of the Environment and Sustainability.
A 2021 study published in the journal Science is one new point of debate. The research explains what author Judah Cohen called “a physical foundation” linking Arctic warming and changes in atmospheric patterns.
It focuses on the polar vortex, an area of low pressure typically parked over the North Pole and surrounded by a band of fast-flowing air. Cohen likens it to a spinning top — when the polar vortex is strong, that band of air spins in a tight circle.
Look out for falling iguanas as temperatures drop
Increasingly often, Cohen found, the polar vortex weakens like a wobbling top. That gives the circulating air a more oblong, extended shape and encourages bursts of Arctic air to spread southward.
While the polar vortex took on that stretched shape for about 10 days a year in 1980, in recent years, it has been occurring more than twice as often, said Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research.
The research links that to changes in the climate around the Arctic: In the Barents and Kara seas north of Russia and Scandinavia, the waters have warmed and ice has melted, whereas in Siberia, there’s been a cooling trend from increases in snowfall induced by climate change.
Some scientists say that a longer and more thorough record of data is needed to back up Cohen’s research and that there isn’t enough evidence to blame Arctic warming for cold outbreaks at lower latitudes.
The surprising reasons parts of Earth are warming more slowly
Swain predicted that scientists will make sense of the atmospheric dynamics but that it could take years.
“It’s one of the most complicated topics in climate science,” Swain said.
In the meantime, researchers are confident that cold extremes will follow larger global trends and gradually get warmer, though they still will have significant impacts on places unaccustomed to the cold.
“We’re going to break a lot of records this week, for sure,” Francis said. “The likelihood of breaking cold records is decreasing, and we see that in the data.”
And Cohen said data suggests that relief from the cold across the United States is near: Weather models agree that the polar vortex is going to snap back from its oblong shape by early January, trapping the most frigid air around the North Pole once again.
How long before we get a rapid extreme weather attribution from the 'experts' at World Weather Attribution or the Met Office I wonder, which the press will amplify with headlines like, 'US Christmas Storm Made 10 Times More Likely By Climate Change'? God, these dummies are so predictable.
Dec 28, 2022·edited Dec 28, 2022Liked by Jaime Jessop
Note the weasel wording: "global warming MAY be altering" normal cycles, but "scientists" are "actively debating" the alleged "link", which is a "work in progress".
The unstated assumption is that catastrophic "global warming" is currently happening (it's not), and that "man-made carbon emissions" are to blame (they're not). But the "scientists" aren't allowed to debate that anymore, are they?
They're like cosmologists who assume the earth is stationary, then make a well-funded career of calculating complex "epicycles" to explain the apparent motion of the sun and moon.
Jennifer Francis' Arctic amplification/jet stream weirding hypothesis has been debunked several times over the years, but it keeps coming back from the dead, because it's all they've got to try and link extreme cold weather with global warming, which as you say is ASSUMED, without debate, to be the cause of accelerated warming at the pole. The Arctic regions experienced even more intense warming in the 1920s and 30s, which could not have been due to greenhouse gases, but they conveniently forget to mention this.
The "Electoverse" website is a good one for climate/weather stories, plus evidence that weaker solar activity affects the jet stream pattern. Here's a sample:
This is an insult to 28 dead people, not even laid in their graves, and millions more affected by the extreme conditions. The Guardian disgusts me, but I'm sure others will follow where they lead.
"The storm is likely to return attention to the issue of climate change, which has likely aggravated conditions that produced the Elliot “bomb cyclone”. The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) said on its website that “more snowfall during snowstorms is an expected effect of climate change”.
That’s because a warmer planet is evaporating more water into the atmosphere. That added moisture means more precipitation in the form of heavy snowfall or downpours, it said. In warmer months, the EDF said, that can cause record floods, “but during the winter – when our part of the world is tipped away from the sun – temperatures drop, and instead of downpours we can get massive winter storms”.
A more unstable jet stream attributed to a rapidly warming Arctic allows frigid polar air to penetrate farther south than normal, the EDF said.
LOL. What did I tell you? It's not even over yet and the Guardian just couldn't resist.
"Although meteorologists are wary of assigning any weather event to climate change, a wobble in the jet stream induced by climate change conforms to previous extreme weather events, both hot and cold."
Yes, and the once-in-generation storm is with respect to Christmas, not winter in general. We had a similar situation where 3/4 of the lower-48 was in some type of winter weather advisory just a couple years ago.
Quite amused by 'nearly unprecedented ': surely an event has either never been preceded or has been preceded? Precedence is not something measured by degree.
The weather service’s map “depicts one of the greatest extents of winter weather warnings and advisories ever,” forecasters said.
So, it's happened before; they just neglect to say when and how many times. But 'nearly unprecedented' sounds so much more apocalyptic. Because of climate change, 'nearly unprecedented' events are becoming more and more frequent!
Everything is always unprecedented with these fools. Usually what happens is some location within the vast storm set a record and now the entire storm is unprecedented.
Thought you might be interested if you haven't seen this already: the YT algo directed me to this podcast by L D den Boer in which he subjects the IPCC claims to actual physics and draws some comforting conclusions. The science bit starts at around 22 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJOazhVmf9w&list=PLIKu5WM35J2qiunR0M_MODYNF_iz05YTR
The bit at the end is less comforting but may fit in with recent observations suggesting the earth's temperature has stopped rising. Enjoy!
Here we go. Right on cue. This is in the WaPo - date stamped Dec 23rd, so they were at it even before I wrote this article it would seem. Premature ejaculation of climate change BS from the spinmeisters at the MSM:
Research suggests that climate change is altering the jet stream, pushing frigid air down to southern climes more frequently. But the scientific jury is still out.
The data is clear: Rising global temperatures mean winters are getting milder, on average, and the sort of record-setting cold that spanned the country Friday is becoming rarer. But at the same time, global warming may be altering atmospheric patterns and pushing harsh outbreaks of polar air to normally moderate climates, according to scientists who are actively debating the link.
Drastic changes in the Arctic, which is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, are at the center of the discussion. Shifts in Arctic ice and snow cover are triggering atmospheric patterns that allow polar air to spread southward more often, according to recent research.
“We’ve seen the same situation basically the last three years in a row,” said Jennifer Francis, senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts. “Here we go again.”
But understanding any link between planetary warming and extreme cold remains a work in progress. Many climate scientists still emphasize that even if frigid air escapes the Arctic more often, that air will nonetheless become milder over time.
More than a million without power as frigid air overtakes eastern U.S.
The debate started with a research paper Francis co-authored in 2012. It gets revived whenever an extreme-cold event creates headlines, such as in 2021, when Texas’s energy grid was overwhelmed by a storm that killed 246 people.
Francis’s research hypothesized that Arctic warming was reducing the contrast between polar and tropical temperatures, weakening the jet stream, a band of strong winds in the upper atmosphere that helps guide weather patterns. A weaker jet stream would allow weather systems to more easily swing from the Arctic down into mid-latitude regions that typically have temperate climates.
Since then, observations of jet stream patterns have not confirmed the hypothesis, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA. But the research inspired a flurry of follow-up studies that Swain expects will eventually clarify a link between climate change and cold-weather outbreaks.
“We’re 10 years into this conversation and there’s still a lot of mixed feelings in the scientific community, though there is some tantalizing evidence that there is some ‘there’ there,” said Swain, who works at UCLA’s Institute of the Environment and Sustainability.
A 2021 study published in the journal Science is one new point of debate. The research explains what author Judah Cohen called “a physical foundation” linking Arctic warming and changes in atmospheric patterns.
It focuses on the polar vortex, an area of low pressure typically parked over the North Pole and surrounded by a band of fast-flowing air. Cohen likens it to a spinning top — when the polar vortex is strong, that band of air spins in a tight circle.
Look out for falling iguanas as temperatures drop
Increasingly often, Cohen found, the polar vortex weakens like a wobbling top. That gives the circulating air a more oblong, extended shape and encourages bursts of Arctic air to spread southward.
While the polar vortex took on that stretched shape for about 10 days a year in 1980, in recent years, it has been occurring more than twice as often, said Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research.
The research links that to changes in the climate around the Arctic: In the Barents and Kara seas north of Russia and Scandinavia, the waters have warmed and ice has melted, whereas in Siberia, there’s been a cooling trend from increases in snowfall induced by climate change.
Some scientists say that a longer and more thorough record of data is needed to back up Cohen’s research and that there isn’t enough evidence to blame Arctic warming for cold outbreaks at lower latitudes.
The surprising reasons parts of Earth are warming more slowly
Swain predicted that scientists will make sense of the atmospheric dynamics but that it could take years.
“It’s one of the most complicated topics in climate science,” Swain said.
In the meantime, researchers are confident that cold extremes will follow larger global trends and gradually get warmer, though they still will have significant impacts on places unaccustomed to the cold.
“We’re going to break a lot of records this week, for sure,” Francis said. “The likelihood of breaking cold records is decreasing, and we see that in the data.”
And Cohen said data suggests that relief from the cold across the United States is near: Weather models agree that the polar vortex is going to snap back from its oblong shape by early January, trapping the most frigid air around the North Pole once again.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/23/climate-change-impact-cold-weather/
How long before we get a rapid extreme weather attribution from the 'experts' at World Weather Attribution or the Met Office I wonder, which the press will amplify with headlines like, 'US Christmas Storm Made 10 Times More Likely By Climate Change'? God, these dummies are so predictable.
Note the weasel wording: "global warming MAY be altering" normal cycles, but "scientists" are "actively debating" the alleged "link", which is a "work in progress".
The unstated assumption is that catastrophic "global warming" is currently happening (it's not), and that "man-made carbon emissions" are to blame (they're not). But the "scientists" aren't allowed to debate that anymore, are they?
They're like cosmologists who assume the earth is stationary, then make a well-funded career of calculating complex "epicycles" to explain the apparent motion of the sun and moon.
Jennifer Francis' Arctic amplification/jet stream weirding hypothesis has been debunked several times over the years, but it keeps coming back from the dead, because it's all they've got to try and link extreme cold weather with global warming, which as you say is ASSUMED, without debate, to be the cause of accelerated warming at the pole. The Arctic regions experienced even more intense warming in the 1920s and 30s, which could not have been due to greenhouse gases, but they conveniently forget to mention this.
The "Electoverse" website is a good one for climate/weather stories, plus evidence that weaker solar activity affects the jet stream pattern. Here's a sample:
electroverse.co/no-scientific-consensus-on-a-warming-arctic-extreme-weather/
This is an insult to 28 dead people, not even laid in their graves, and millions more affected by the extreme conditions. The Guardian disgusts me, but I'm sure others will follow where they lead.
"The storm is likely to return attention to the issue of climate change, which has likely aggravated conditions that produced the Elliot “bomb cyclone”. The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) said on its website that “more snowfall during snowstorms is an expected effect of climate change”.
That’s because a warmer planet is evaporating more water into the atmosphere. That added moisture means more precipitation in the form of heavy snowfall or downpours, it said. In warmer months, the EDF said, that can cause record floods, “but during the winter – when our part of the world is tipped away from the sun – temperatures drop, and instead of downpours we can get massive winter storms”.
A more unstable jet stream attributed to a rapidly warming Arctic allows frigid polar air to penetrate farther south than normal, the EDF said.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/25/christmas-arctic-storm-buffalo-new-york
LOL. What did I tell you? It's not even over yet and the Guardian just couldn't resist.
"Although meteorologists are wary of assigning any weather event to climate change, a wobble in the jet stream induced by climate change conforms to previous extreme weather events, both hot and cold."
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/24/huge-winter-storm-bomb-cyclone-us-life-threatening-cold-holidays
Bombogenesis? I had no idea that Chicken Little was right, the sky is falling.
They already are, over here in the UK.
Any and all weather conditions are laid upon the altar of climate change.
No evidence of historic weather events / reports, are considered to be valid.
Once in generation... every 30 years then, so not so unprecedented....
Yes, and the once-in-generation storm is with respect to Christmas, not winter in general. We had a similar situation where 3/4 of the lower-48 was in some type of winter weather advisory just a couple years ago.
Well spotted - I didn't spot that - so that is just sophistry, playing with words to cheat!
Quite amused by 'nearly unprecedented ': surely an event has either never been preceded or has been preceded? Precedence is not something measured by degree.
The weather service’s map “depicts one of the greatest extents of winter weather warnings and advisories ever,” forecasters said.
So, it's happened before; they just neglect to say when and how many times. But 'nearly unprecedented' sounds so much more apocalyptic. Because of climate change, 'nearly unprecedented' events are becoming more and more frequent!
Everything is always unprecedented with these fools. Usually what happens is some location within the vast storm set a record and now the entire storm is unprecedented.