14 Comments
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Benjamin W's avatar

HTDS- Love it!

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Paul Cassidy's avatar

What are they going to say if the abnormal warming continues beyond the point when the El Niño effect must have dissipated?

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Jaime Jessop's avatar

'Gosh, this El Nino is even weirder than we thought - starts really early and finishes really late!'

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Douglas Brodie's avatar

They are making it up, see the ENSO Multivariate Index: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

I admit I don't know how this it compiled but explain me this; Why does the now-waning 2023-24 El Nino look so puny relative to the unprecedentedly large post Hongo Tonga spike in globaltemperateres? https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_March_2024_v6_20x9.jpg

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Jaime Jessop's avatar

It's ridiculous Doug. 2024 was another blip, slightly smaller than the 2009/10 El Nino which warmed the planet less and was more notable for the subsequent La Nina and the run of severe cold winters during that time. But the real difference as far as I can see is that none of the previous El Ninos have raised global temperature sharply and kept it there for such a long period. All previous El Nino warming spikes have declined rapidly AND they have peaked in winter/early spring of the year FOLLOWING the development of the El Nino.

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CraigM350's avatar

"why the desperate and concerted attempt to exclude Hunga Tonga from any role in the unique warming spike of 2023"

Because mentioning Natural processes (a.k.a. variation) is like a certain young bespectacled wizard mentioning the name Voldemort. Bad things happen when you place other gods before the almighty CAGW and when you stop believing mass numbers of polar bear, penguins and koalas die instantly. So please repeat "I do believe in Fairy Science, I do believe in Fairy Science" and we can keep the faith. Praise be.

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Douglas Brodie's avatar

I did a few Hunga Tonga comments (first to post) on Paul Homewood''s recent article on precipitation anomalies: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/04/03/record-rainfall-met-office-accused-of-hiding-the-inconvenient-truth/

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Jaime Jessop's avatar

Left a comment too.

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Jaime Jessop's avatar

The weird thing is, El Nino being implicated (and even dominating) sudden global warming has now become acceptable, even in alarmist circles. But any mention of volcanoes causing warming is verboten. That's really odd.

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Overhead At Docksat's avatar

The issue here as always is that this is just a paper. It doesn’t automatically mean it is correct and it far from being sufficient for taking real world action based on it.

But the acolytes think every climate prognostication is the truth. Meanwhile real world grifters and grifting laws are in place leeching money and productivity from society

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Reggie VanderVeen's avatar

"HTDS (Hunga Tonga Derangement/Denial Syndrome)"

First I've heard it put this way. Gold! Yours? Either way, I'm stealing it! lol

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Jaime Jessop's avatar

All mine. Freshly minted this morning. Feel free to nick it!

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David Paterson's avatar

Consider it nicked.

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Reggie VanderVeen's avatar

Not mentioning Hunga Tonga is like not mentioning nuclear in a CO2 reduction paper.

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