Discussion about this post

User's avatar
CraigM350's avatar

Weather engineering comes from the same narcissistic strand as climate change - it's all our fault. Nah

Expand full comment
John's avatar

For the past week I've watched people clamoring for the wildest of explanations, and realized the the danger and utility, the increasingly sharp double edged sword of instantaneously available information through the internet.

I kept reading about "perfect circles", "near perfect eclipses", and all the finger pointing from dark corners of a million imaginations, none if whom have any practical fire behavior experience.

Not having the time to track down the images and video they referred to, I couldn't say what I was suspecting. But thanks to your images, my suspicions were correct.

First of all, I believe the night time drone video is of one of the upcountry fires between Kahului and Kihei, or up towards Kula, not Lahaina. Secondly all the images show very normal fire spread patterns. How do I know they look normal? A thirty plus year career fighting these fires, with one of my specialties in the last ten working as a fire behavior analyst, (someone who makes observations and short and long range predictions to assist with strategy and tactics).

I have gleaned that the fire started east of Lahaina on a grass covered slope, near the High School and Middle School. The fire was initially contained (spread was stopped, but hot spots still remained within the interior). As the dry, warm winds picked up in the hours later, the fire spotted (and ember was blown across the containment line, and started a new ignition down wind). Most likely the local fire department had moved on to other incidents and the fire was able to accelerate and spread due to the strong downslope winds. Once the fire impacted a few structures, the firefighters were fighting a losing battle. The Tunnel fire in the Berkley Hills area in CA in 1991 was very similar. I was there the next morning, helping to put out what was left. Thousands of homes were destroyed. 25 people died. This tragedy in Lahaina is very similar. The fire behavior accounts I have read seen and heard are all typical. The wild assumptions though are frustrating to say the least. There will hopefully be many hard lessons learned. But blaming everyone from crazy rich Oprah to the crazy rich military helps no one, especially the people who's lives, futures and families have been forever changed by this tragedy.

Thank you Jamie for trying to reel folks back towards reality.

Expand full comment
20 more comments...

No posts