This critique misrepresents both the science and the methods used by the Met Office. The 2022 heatwave didn’t “disprove” prior studies—it confirmed warnings that extreme events were becoming more likely due to climate change. The updated risk (1-in-24 years) reflects new data and improved models, not “magical thinking.”
The article falsely suggests that southerly winds caused the heatwave independent of climate change. But circulation patterns move heat—they don’t create it. That imported air was hotter because Europe is warming. Climate change raises the baseline, making these patterns more dangerous.
Finally, dismissing model ensembles as “fantasy” ignores that they’re validated against observations and essential for assessing rare events. This isn’t hysteria—it’s science responding to reality.
No misrepresentation, misinterpretation by you. I didn't say that the 2022 heatwave 'disproved' the 2020 study, I said that the later probability study hugely increased the likelihood of 40C being exceeded in the UK based on one data point only (July 19th 2022) plus 'models'.
"The article falsely suggests that southerly winds caused the heatwave independent of climate change."
No, it doesn't. It demonstrates that the predominant cause of the extreme high temperatures experienced in the UK on 18/19 July was advected hot air from the continent.
As to your suggestion that the imported hot air from the continent was made so much hotter by climate change, that's wrong too. The all time hottest temperature ever recorded in Europe was 48.8C in Sicily in 2021. Before that, the record was set by Athens, Greece (48C), way back in 1977, when we were being told that the earth was in danger of entering a new ice age! Other high temperature records in southern Europe are 47.3C in Portugal in 2003 and Spain (47.6C in 2021). July 2022 was not that exceptional on the continent. What was very exceptional is the fact that the very hot air which originated from north Africa (not Europe) was transported so far north, even as far as Durham in the UK. That is anomalous circulation, not 'climate change' and it was part of a wider pattern of standing waves around the globe on that date. And if you want to argue that north Africa was hotter than it 'should be' in 2022, that's wrong too, because 2022 hardly features at all in high temperature records in Algeria and Morocco, and in fact the highest ever temperature reliably recorded in north Africa was in Tunisia (55C) way back in 1931. So much for 'climate change'!
Thanks for the clarification, but the central issue remains: the 2022 heatwave didn’t “create” the increased probability estimate—it updated the statistical understanding in combination with physically validated models. That’s how climate risk analysis works. When an unprecedented event occurs, it naturally reshapes our estimates of likelihood.
You continue to frame circulation and background warming as either/or. But they’re not. Yes, the 2022 event involved advection—but what’s being advected matters. Background warming increases the temperature of source regions like southern Europe and North Africa. This is well documented in reanalysis datasets and long-term trends—not in isolated historical records.
Pulling single high temperatures from Tunisia in 1931 or Greece in 1977 doesn’t disprove modern climate trends. These are isolated events, often recorded under outdated or inconsistent conditions. What matters scientifically is the trend, not outliers.
That’s why scientists use global reanalysis systems like ERA5 or MERRA-2, which combine observations with physics-based models to create a consistent, quality-controlled picture of global temperatures, winds, and atmospheric circulation.
These reanalyses show clear warming trends in North Africa and southern Europe, with heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense. These aren’t cherry-picked records—they’re consistent, robust trends across thousands of locations, supported by satellite and ground-based data.
So yes, southerly flow helped drive the 2022 UK heatwave. But the air being advected was hotter than it would have been without climate change. That’s not speculation—it’s thermodynamically expected and empirically documented.
"The 2022 heatwave didn’t “create” the increased probability estimate—it updated the statistical understanding in combination with physically validated models."
They validated the models using the updated data from 2022 and the statistical analysis which included the 2022 2 day 'heatwave'!
"So yes, southerly flow helped drive the 2022 UK heatwave. But the air being advected was hotter than it would have been without climate change. That’s not speculation—it’s thermodynamically expected and empirically documented."
How much did thermodynamics contribute to July 19 2022 and how much did atmospheric dynamics contribute? The long term temperature trend in North Africa at present is 1.28C above the 1990-2020 mean. July 19th 2022 was not an extreme day in north Africa in terms of maximum temperatures, so it's reasonable to suppose that general warming contributed about one and a quarter degrees to the air temperature at most. The record temperature recorded in Durham was 4 degrees higher than the previous record set only 3 years earlier in July 2019. So it seems pretty clear that advection of hot air was the dominant factor in the extraordinarily high temperature measured at Durham.
You’re correct that southerly advection was a key factor in the UK’s 2022 heatwave—no one disputes that. But it doesn’t operate in isolation. The background warming trend means the air arriving from North Africa and Southern Europe is now starting from a higher baseline than it would have 50 or even 20 years ago.
You cite a ~1.28°C trend over North Africa. That’s precisely the point: that 1.28°C is added to whatever temperature patterns circulation brings. Climate change isn’t expected to cause every degree of an extreme—it makes extremes more probable and more intense when the right weather patterns (like advection) occur.
As for the UK breaking its all-time record by ~4°C in some locations, this was not just advection. Multiple compounding factors played a role:
• Background warming across the UK and continental Europe
• Dry soils reducing evaporative cooling
• Persistent high-pressure systems enhancing solar heating
• Southerly advection of already-hot continental air
These interactions are exactly why models and attribution studies are essential: to quantify how much of the event’s magnitude was made more likely or more extreme by anthropogenic warming.
Without climate change, the same circulation pattern might have produced 36°C—not 40.3°C. That ~1.2°C contribution is not trivial in a system where new records are being broken by degrees, not tenths.
The globalists want your land and your money. Climate alarmism is one of their tools to realize those goals. Climate Alarmism is based on lies. Here in the US we have a legacy of lies by our government and its lackeys in the media: Murders of JFK, RFK, and MLK; Gulf of Tonkin; 911; WMD's in Iraq; Syrian gas attacks; 4 years of lies re Russiagate; 5 years of lies re covid; lies about Ukraine; lies about Israel, and lies about Climate Change. They also lie by omission: How many Americans know that O-bomb-uh deported more immigrants than Trump? How many know that he put immigrants in cages? How many know that he dropped nearly 60,000 more bombs than Bush and expanded the wars into 4 new countries?
If you had a friend who had lied to you as many times as our governments and their propaganda arm the "mainstream media", would you even be friends with him anymore? Would you listen to him and believe that this time he's telling the truth? But that's what Americans do when it comes to our government and our media!
From my 50+ years on this planet I've seen it grow much hotter over the decades, particularly mostly mild winters and more extreme heat in the summers. Objectively mountains I've climbed all over the planet also have shrinking glaciers and greater hazards due to the meltout of high altitude rocky terrain.. When I was a small child there were local ski areas dotting the state I live in where none remain now.
Now, of course the Klimate cultists will screech that they understand this complex system boiling down to excess plant food which certainly makes no sense. I will simply shrug and continue to repair my AC systems as needed..
No bad nuff innit
This critique misrepresents both the science and the methods used by the Met Office. The 2022 heatwave didn’t “disprove” prior studies—it confirmed warnings that extreme events were becoming more likely due to climate change. The updated risk (1-in-24 years) reflects new data and improved models, not “magical thinking.”
The article falsely suggests that southerly winds caused the heatwave independent of climate change. But circulation patterns move heat—they don’t create it. That imported air was hotter because Europe is warming. Climate change raises the baseline, making these patterns more dangerous.
Finally, dismissing model ensembles as “fantasy” ignores that they’re validated against observations and essential for assessing rare events. This isn’t hysteria—it’s science responding to reality.
https://open.substack.com/pub/whetherweather/p/rebuttal-no-the-met-office-didnt?r=53ylum&utm_medium=ios
No misrepresentation, misinterpretation by you. I didn't say that the 2022 heatwave 'disproved' the 2020 study, I said that the later probability study hugely increased the likelihood of 40C being exceeded in the UK based on one data point only (July 19th 2022) plus 'models'.
"The article falsely suggests that southerly winds caused the heatwave independent of climate change."
No, it doesn't. It demonstrates that the predominant cause of the extreme high temperatures experienced in the UK on 18/19 July was advected hot air from the continent.
As to your suggestion that the imported hot air from the continent was made so much hotter by climate change, that's wrong too. The all time hottest temperature ever recorded in Europe was 48.8C in Sicily in 2021. Before that, the record was set by Athens, Greece (48C), way back in 1977, when we were being told that the earth was in danger of entering a new ice age! Other high temperature records in southern Europe are 47.3C in Portugal in 2003 and Spain (47.6C in 2021). July 2022 was not that exceptional on the continent. What was very exceptional is the fact that the very hot air which originated from north Africa (not Europe) was transported so far north, even as far as Durham in the UK. That is anomalous circulation, not 'climate change' and it was part of a wider pattern of standing waves around the globe on that date. And if you want to argue that north Africa was hotter than it 'should be' in 2022, that's wrong too, because 2022 hardly features at all in high temperature records in Algeria and Morocco, and in fact the highest ever temperature reliably recorded in north Africa was in Tunisia (55C) way back in 1931. So much for 'climate change'!
https://www.plantmaps.com/en/dz/climate/extremes/c/algeria-record-high-low-temperatures
https://www.plantmaps.com/en/ma/climate/extremes/c/morocco-record-high-low-temperatures
Thanks for the clarification, but the central issue remains: the 2022 heatwave didn’t “create” the increased probability estimate—it updated the statistical understanding in combination with physically validated models. That’s how climate risk analysis works. When an unprecedented event occurs, it naturally reshapes our estimates of likelihood.
You continue to frame circulation and background warming as either/or. But they’re not. Yes, the 2022 event involved advection—but what’s being advected matters. Background warming increases the temperature of source regions like southern Europe and North Africa. This is well documented in reanalysis datasets and long-term trends—not in isolated historical records.
Pulling single high temperatures from Tunisia in 1931 or Greece in 1977 doesn’t disprove modern climate trends. These are isolated events, often recorded under outdated or inconsistent conditions. What matters scientifically is the trend, not outliers.
That’s why scientists use global reanalysis systems like ERA5 or MERRA-2, which combine observations with physics-based models to create a consistent, quality-controlled picture of global temperatures, winds, and atmospheric circulation.
These reanalyses show clear warming trends in North Africa and southern Europe, with heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense. These aren’t cherry-picked records—they’re consistent, robust trends across thousands of locations, supported by satellite and ground-based data.
So yes, southerly flow helped drive the 2022 UK heatwave. But the air being advected was hotter than it would have been without climate change. That’s not speculation—it’s thermodynamically expected and empirically documented.
"The 2022 heatwave didn’t “create” the increased probability estimate—it updated the statistical understanding in combination with physically validated models."
They validated the models using the updated data from 2022 and the statistical analysis which included the 2022 2 day 'heatwave'!
"So yes, southerly flow helped drive the 2022 UK heatwave. But the air being advected was hotter than it would have been without climate change. That’s not speculation—it’s thermodynamically expected and empirically documented."
How much did thermodynamics contribute to July 19 2022 and how much did atmospheric dynamics contribute? The long term temperature trend in North Africa at present is 1.28C above the 1990-2020 mean. July 19th 2022 was not an extreme day in north Africa in terms of maximum temperatures, so it's reasonable to suppose that general warming contributed about one and a quarter degrees to the air temperature at most. The record temperature recorded in Durham was 4 degrees higher than the previous record set only 3 years earlier in July 2019. So it seems pretty clear that advection of hot air was the dominant factor in the extraordinarily high temperature measured at Durham.
You’re correct that southerly advection was a key factor in the UK’s 2022 heatwave—no one disputes that. But it doesn’t operate in isolation. The background warming trend means the air arriving from North Africa and Southern Europe is now starting from a higher baseline than it would have 50 or even 20 years ago.
You cite a ~1.28°C trend over North Africa. That’s precisely the point: that 1.28°C is added to whatever temperature patterns circulation brings. Climate change isn’t expected to cause every degree of an extreme—it makes extremes more probable and more intense when the right weather patterns (like advection) occur.
As for the UK breaking its all-time record by ~4°C in some locations, this was not just advection. Multiple compounding factors played a role:
• Background warming across the UK and continental Europe
• Dry soils reducing evaporative cooling
• Persistent high-pressure systems enhancing solar heating
• Southerly advection of already-hot continental air
These interactions are exactly why models and attribution studies are essential: to quantify how much of the event’s magnitude was made more likely or more extreme by anthropogenic warming.
Without climate change, the same circulation pattern might have produced 36°C—not 40.3°C. That ~1.2°C contribution is not trivial in a system where new records are being broken by degrees, not tenths.
The globalists want your land and your money. Climate alarmism is one of their tools to realize those goals. Climate Alarmism is based on lies. Here in the US we have a legacy of lies by our government and its lackeys in the media: Murders of JFK, RFK, and MLK; Gulf of Tonkin; 911; WMD's in Iraq; Syrian gas attacks; 4 years of lies re Russiagate; 5 years of lies re covid; lies about Ukraine; lies about Israel, and lies about Climate Change. They also lie by omission: How many Americans know that O-bomb-uh deported more immigrants than Trump? How many know that he put immigrants in cages? How many know that he dropped nearly 60,000 more bombs than Bush and expanded the wars into 4 new countries?
If you had a friend who had lied to you as many times as our governments and their propaganda arm the "mainstream media", would you even be friends with him anymore? Would you listen to him and believe that this time he's telling the truth? But that's what Americans do when it comes to our government and our media!
From my 50+ years on this planet I've seen it grow much hotter over the decades, particularly mostly mild winters and more extreme heat in the summers. Objectively mountains I've climbed all over the planet also have shrinking glaciers and greater hazards due to the meltout of high altitude rocky terrain.. When I was a small child there were local ski areas dotting the state I live in where none remain now.
Now, of course the Klimate cultists will screech that they understand this complex system boiling down to excess plant food which certainly makes no sense. I will simply shrug and continue to repair my AC systems as needed..