Hunga Games

Promoters of the fake man-made ‘climate crisis’ are apparently getting desperate about the fallout from Hunga Tonga. They’ve noted the fact that ‘climate change deniers’ are starting to suggest that the current spike in global warmth may be due to the unprecedented (in the satellite observation record) Hunga Tonga eruption. In response, they are at pains to either ignore or play down the impact that the volcano has had or will have upon global mean surface temperatures and regional climate. Today’s post publishes an email by Douglas Brodie to the Met Office, which questions why they make so very little mention of Hunga Tonga and the very real possibility that it might have impacted the climate here in the British Isles, and around the world. Before reproducing that email, I’ll say a few words myself. Firstly there appears to be no mention of Hunga Tonga by the Met Office authors of the State of the UK Climate report 2022. But they do say this:

8 YEAR 2022 CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE CONTEXT

8.1 Temperature

An ‘attribution’ study was carried out to quantify how human-caused climate change has influenced the likelihood of the UK having a year such as 2022, that is, with an annual mean temperature of 10°C or higher. The study used a method previously developed for rapid attribution of extreme events (Christidis, 2021). This system uses large collections of climate model simulations drawn from the global Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), with one set of simulations using only natural climate forcings, and another using all natural and human-caused forcings for the historical period and the SSP2-4.5 emissions scenario out to 2100 (Riahi et al., 2017). SSP2-4.5 is a scenario which gives a medium level of warming that is broadly in line with current global policy commitments.

These two sets of simulations provide estimates of the UK annual mean temperature exceeding 10°C in a natural climate without human-caused greenhouse gases, and in the current climate (taken as the period 2013–2032). The study found that the likelihood has increased from once in every 528 years (range 118–733) in a natural climate to once in every 3.4 years (range 3.2–3.6) in the current climate. So, overall, the likelihood of this event has increased by a factor of nearly 160 due to human-induced climate change in the central case. The attribution analysis also suggests that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario the 10°C threshold is set to be crossed almost every year by the end of the century.

So, the verdict of the Met Office is that the UK record warm year of 2022 (10C exceeded for the first time) was very likely caused by ‘man-made climate change’. Not a single mention of the Hunga Tonga eruption in Jan 2022, where the stratospheric water vapour and aerosol cloud quickly made its way around the globe within days.

A reader alerted to me to this post by Andrew Dessler, a committed warmist ‘scientist’:

The climate impact of the Hunga-Tonga volcanic eruption

He says:

“The overall impact of HT will therefore be the net difference between the cooling effect of aerosols and the warming effect of water vapor. I am presently working with a group led by Dr. Mark Schoeberl on a publication estimating these terms, which is presently in peer review, so I won’t comment on our results other than to say they’re generally consistent with previous work.

Here is a summary of what others have found:

• Jenkins et al.: They just calculated the warming impact of water vapor and concluded that it would increase the global average surface temperature by a few hundredths of a degree.

• Zhang et al.: They included both aerosol cooling and water vapor warming and concluded: Surface temperature “will decrease by about 0.0315–0.1118°C in the next 1–2 years”.

• Zhu et al.: They concluded that the net effect of the volcano would be to cool, with total radiative forcing of around -0.2 W/m^2.

Thus, previous work has concluded that the climate impact of HT is small, and two out of three suggest its main effect is to cool the climate system.

This is Dessler’s take on what’s happening; it’s us ‘deniers’ who are using Hunga Tonga to advance our agenda, not the other way round:

h/t to John Ridgway also for pointing out this article:

Scientists are wondering if global warming and El Nino have an accomplice in fueling this summer's record-shattering heat.

The European climate agency Copernicus reported that July was one-third of a degree Celsius (six-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit) hotter than the old record. That's a bump in heat that is so recent and so big, especially in the oceans and even more so in the North Atlantic, that scientists are split on whether something else could be at work.

“What we are seeing is more than just El Nino on top of climate change,” Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo said.

One surprising source of added warmth could be cleaner air resulting from new shipping rules. Another possible cause is 165 million tons (150 million metric tons) of water spewed into the atmosphere by a volcano. Both ideas are under investigation.

No, you don’t say!

DID THE VOLCANO DO IT?

In January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai undersea volcano in the South Pacific blew, sending more than 165 million tons of water, which is a heat-trapping greenhouse gas as vapor, according to University of Colorado climate researcher Margot Clyne, who coordinates international computer simulations for climate impacts of the eruption.

The volcano also blasted 550,000 tons (500,000 metric tons) of sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere.

The amount of water "is so absolutely crazy, absolutely ginormous,” said Holger Vomel, a stratospheric water vapor scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research who published a study on the potential climate effects of the eruption.

Volmer said the water vapor went too high in the atmosphere to have a noticeable effect yet, but that effects could emerge later.

A couple of studies use computer models to show a warming effect from all that water vapor. One study, which has not yet undergone the scientific gold standard of peer review, reported this week that the warming could range from as much as 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of added warming in some places to 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) of cooling elsewhere.

But NASA atmospheric scientist Paul Newman and former NASA atmospheric scientist Mark Schoeberl said those climate models are missing a key ingredient: the cooling effect of the sulfur.

Normally huge volcanic eruptions, like 1991’s Mount Pinatubo, can cool Earth temporarily with sulfur and other particles reflecting sunlight. However, Hunga Tonga spouted an unusually high amount of water and low amount of cooling sulfur.

The studies that showed warming from Hunga Tonga didn't incorporate sulfur cooling, which is hard to do, Schoeberl and Newman said. Schoeberl, now chief scientist at Science and Technology Corp. of Maryland, published a study that calculated a slight overall cooling — 0.04 degrees Celsius (0.07 degrees Fahrenheit).

Just because different computer simulations conflict with each other "that doesn’t mean science is wrong,” University of Colorado's Clyne said. “It just means that we haven’t reached a consensus yet. We’re still just figuring it out.”

Basically, this is an unprecedented event. Scientists don’t really know what the effects are going to be, but that said, the possibility of a significant jump in global warming is real. Downplaying it or ignoring it all together, as the Met Office appears to do, in favour of promoting the preferred climate change narrative, is not what ‘scientists’ should be doing. But hey, don’t let that stop Fredi Otto, the darling of extreme weather attribution:

“Climate change and El Nino can explain it all,” Imperial College of London climate scientist Friederike Otto said. “That doesn’t mean other factors didn’t play a role. But we should definitely expect to see this again without the other factors being present.”

What an utterly absurd and irrational comment. Michael ‘Hockey Stick’ Mann is no better:

University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann estimates that about five-sixths of the recent warming is from human burning of fossil fuels, with about one-sixth due to a strong El Nino.

The fact that the world is coming out of a three-year La Nina, which suppressed global temperatures a bit, and going into a strong El Nino, which adds to them, makes the effect bigger, he said.

What?

Here follows an email sent by Douglas Brodie to the UK Met Office:

To: The Met Office          enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk 

The 2022 Hunga undersea volcanic eruption 

I vaguely noticed in 2022 that your Met Office HadCET series of Central England temperatures was showing something very unusual but got distracted from investigating by Covid. The abnormality showed in your monthly graph, since discontinued, of the year-to-date temperature anomaly from the 1961-1990 baseline. It went by largely unreported but recent posts have confirmed that a very exceptional climatic event occurred in 2022. Its cover-up is yet another example of coordinated establishment skulduggery, like the Climategate cover-up. 

Your CET legacy page links to what I assume was your last monthly HadCET graph, for March 2022. By suspicious coincidence, it shows that the March 2022 year-to-date CET anomaly had spiked to an unprecedented 1.9°C, up a stonking 1.2°C from the end-2021 figure. This simple graph shows rare smoking gun evidence that nature has far more influence on the global climate than humans, yet the UN IPCC is only mandated to study the risks of human, not natural, influences on climate - but they never admit that shortcoming to the general public. 

Your end-2022 post shows that 2022 ended with the CET anomaly still very high at 1.7°C. Your monthly data, which includes a graph of the unprecedented 2022 end-of-year anomaly, show the anomaly down slightly to 1.5°C as of July 2023. 

Your CET series data show that the end-2022 CET absolute mean temperature was 11.1°C, up from 10.3°C in 2021, the new record high after 11.0°C in 2014 for your CET series which goes back to 1659 in the middle of the Little Ice Age. This was helped marginally by a fleeting record high summer temperature of 40.3°C dubiously measured at RAF Coningsby which is used by Typhoon jets. 

The very sudden 2022 CET rise could not possibly be due to the alleged greenhouse gas global warming effect of man-made atmospheric CO2 because, according to the UN IPCC, it supposedly acts at a slow but steady much lower rate of about 0.2°C per decade. Nor could it be due to a sudden natural global warming El Nino event as 2022 straddled a prolonged global cooling La Nina event. 

Do you agree it is overwhelmingly likely to be due to the Hunga Tonga undersea volcanic eruption of January 2022? You seem to have deliberately suppressed any mention of that event in all your climate commentaries but I’m sure you are aware that the eruption spouted massive quantities of water vapour, a powerful greenhouse gas, high into the stratosphere. A search of your website for “Hunga” via the query button reveals only one reference to this important event, without any comment as to its meteorological significance. Strange that. 

The corrupt, complicit mainstream media has been equally reticent about the January 2022 Hunga eruption. For example, a search of the BBC News website finds no reporting of the eruption at the time it happened although they posted this inconsequential article in July 2023. The Guardian did a detailed report three months after the eruption but made no mention of its by-then obvious climate impact. These suppressions are very reminiscent of the lies by omission censorship inflicted on the general public during the Covid so-called pandemic. 

Was this inconvenient Hunga event the trigger which prompted you to discontinue your visually easy-to-understand monthly HadCET graph, to try to keep the public in the dark about this climate-dominating event which threatens to spoil your precious man-made global warming narrative, itself founded on politically cherry-picked pseudo-science? It looks suspiciously like it. 

I note that your press release of 28 Dec 2022 headlined 2022 provisionally the warmest year on record for the UK made no mention of the Hunga eruption even although it was almost certainly the cause of the heightened 2022 temperatures, pushing instead the tired old propaganda line that “The warm year is in line with the genuine impacts we expect as a result of human-induced climate change”. 

Your own CET data show that the global warming after-effects of the Hunga eruption were still strong at the end of 2022 and to the present time in 2023. Could Hunga also be the cause of this year’s massive spike (of about 0.7°C) in the UAH satellite series troposphere temperatures? If not, what is your expert meteorological opinion on its cause? Again, this could not possibly be due to man-made CO2, nor to the nascent El Nino which by my records only started in or around April 2023. 

Conclusions 

The global establishment and our politicians, abetted by public bodies such as the UN IPCC and the UK Met Office, have for decades been taking the public for fools over their faked climate crisis agenda. To put their carefully-curated, slow-burn ‘great global warming swindle’ into context, never forget that the same evil globalists who are driving it showed their true colours during their quick-fire Covid "plandemic", using psyops to force their poorly tested, toxic-by-design so-called vaccines onto the people to maim, sterilise and kill millions worldwide. 

Pressing ahead with their draconian yet pointless Net Zero agenda, including their new, obviously-concocted war against farming, is certain to lead to impoverishment, economic decline, deindustrialisation and ultimately depopulation, which seems to be exactly what the globalists want in order to keep us under control. Sadly, most of the general public are still unaware that they are being horribly abused. 

I accuse the taxpayer-funded Met Office of shameful failure to provide balanced climate information to the general public, pushing instead their blatantly dishonest climate fearmongering and propaganda (an amusing compilation of climate lies and skulduggeries) in support of the establishment’s never-validated theory of alleged man-made global warming. As Iain Davis says in the linked article, the climate change agenda clearly has nothing to do with climate, it’s all about sustainable debt slavery or some population-controlling variation thereon. 

I ask all politicians who support the establishment’s psyops-driven, pseudo-scientific climate and Covid agendas: Why are you siding with evil globalists in their undeclared war against your own people? Get a grip, your cult of “climate catastrophism“ looks like an irrational secular religion. Look at the trouble in store for Nicola Sturgeon for her alleged Covid malfeasances. Such politicians are heading to end up on the wrong side of history. They need to switch sides now and atone for their mistakes by working with the people against the globalists. 

Yours faithfully, 

Douglas Brodie, Nairn, 9 August 2023