I’m away on holiday at the moment, tapping away frustratingly slowly on a silly phone, so forgive the brevity of this post, but I just couldn’t let this slide, what with all the media hype about ‘climate change’ causing the wildfires in Spain and France.
“The computer models are very good at solving the equations of fluid dynamics but very bad at describing the real world. The real world is full of things like clouds and vegetation and soil and dust which the models describe very poorly.”
Good summary. The Settled Science of Global Warming claims to have isolated the miniscule anthropogenic signal of 3.7 W/m2 longwave forcing per doubling of CO2 from the 50 times greater LW radiative forcing of clouds - which can occur over a matter of hours. Even though the climate models cannot accurately simulate the effects of clouds on climate and weather over all timescales!
Recent warm weather and dry conditions have nothing to do with the burning of fossil fuels. It is all down to something called weather. In summer, whenever we get a region of high pressure sitting on top of us, it brings warm air from the tropics. Nothing to do with climate change. Wildfires are due to mismanagement of areas of grassland or forest. Simples!
Nice photo too. I suppose the lean is caused by Climate change. Or holiday spirit?
"... overall drying patterns are driven to a large extent by precipitation trends." - I've read that cloud cover has been reducing over western Europe over the past few decades. If so, it's a double whammy.
I think it was Freeman Dyson way back who stated that none of the models were anywhere near handling soil dynamics wrt moisture properly.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/freeman-dysons-views-on-climate-in-the-independent
“The computer models are very good at solving the equations of fluid dynamics but very bad at describing the real world. The real world is full of things like clouds and vegetation and soil and dust which the models describe very poorly.”
Quite.
NASA on clouds and modelling...
https://notrickszone.com/2019/08/29/nasa-we-cant-model-clouds-so-climate-models-are-100-times-less-accurate-than-needed-for-projections/
Good summary. The Settled Science of Global Warming claims to have isolated the miniscule anthropogenic signal of 3.7 W/m2 longwave forcing per doubling of CO2 from the 50 times greater LW radiative forcing of clouds - which can occur over a matter of hours. Even though the climate models cannot accurately simulate the effects of clouds on climate and weather over all timescales!
So predictable. And wrong.
https://news.sky.com/story/climate-change-fuelled-france-and-spain-wildfires-experts-say-13568639?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
Supertanskii blocked me immediately after that post. Was it something I said?
Recent warm weather and dry conditions have nothing to do with the burning of fossil fuels. It is all down to something called weather. In summer, whenever we get a region of high pressure sitting on top of us, it brings warm air from the tropics. Nothing to do with climate change. Wildfires are due to mismanagement of areas of grassland or forest. Simples!
Wow, from a phone! Above and beyond, Jaime.
Nice photo too. I suppose the lean is caused by Climate change. Or holiday spirit?
"... overall drying patterns are driven to a large extent by precipitation trends." - I've read that cloud cover has been reducing over western Europe over the past few decades. If so, it's a double whammy.
Enjoy the Roman Wall, Jaime. 😊
It’s brilliant. Over 2000 years old and it looks like it could have been built only 30 years ago in parts.