As Predicted, Otto And Her Gang Of Extreme Weather Attributors Rush Out Study Saying Climate Change Was To Blame For Dubai Floods

The heavy rainfall was intensified by climate change, say ‘scientists’:

Deadly storms that left Dubai under water and killed more than 20 people in Oman were likely made worse by climate change, scientists say.

Heat pumped into the atmosphere by humans made the record rainfall 10-40% heavier, they say.

But the natural weather pattern El Niño also drove the intense storms.

Scientists warn the link to climate change is not fully certain because the rarity of rainfall in the region gives them little data to work with.

The study was carried out by scientists with the World Weather Attribution group. The experts also said the way that cities have been built made the impacts of the storm worse.

‘Heat pumped into the atmosphere’? There was me thinking it was heat trapping greenhouse gases which are being ‘pumped’ into the atmosphere which is the problem. I think the Beeb have got a fixation about heat pumps now, so much so that they’ve invented one that has gone global. The Great Global Warming Air Source Heat Pump!

The report continues:

Without lots of data, like rainfall information, it can be harder to see patterns and come to strong conclusions.

But the basic physics of global warming remain the same and indicate that a hotter atmosphere will create more powerful storms and rainfall, explains Professor Friederike Otto from Imperial College London.

"We are quite confident about the link to climate change. Studies by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) show future increases in rainfall intensity in the region," she explained.

Prof Otto also said that this study was among the hardest done by the World Weather Attribution group because of gaps in data.

Guess what? The ‘study’ proves nothing because of the poor quality and limitations of the observational data but moreover because the climate models failed to agree with the limited observational data! They found nothing, zilch, nada, SFA, but for propaganda purposes they still published their shoddy ‘research’ and have got the complicit BBC and other MSM outlets to spin the narrative that it was climate change which contributed to the Dubai floods (and not cloud-seeding). El Nino (natural weather) is awarded an honorary supporting role.

Here are the main findings of the study (my bold):

• The UAE, Oman and the wider analysed region are located in a so-called hyper-arid region, with on average very little rainfall but with very high variability from year to year. Thus heavy rainfall events such as the one analysed here occur very rarely, leading to short records of similar events which results in high uncertainty in the assessment. 

• The El Niño Southern Oscillation, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon, was found to be important to explain the variability in the observed rainfall. Most previous heavy rainfall events in the area occurred during El Niño years. 

• To assess the role of human-induced climate change we first estimate if there is a trend in the observations associated with the warming up until today of 1.2°C and find that there is a trend, making heavy rainfall such as observed more likely. Based on the observations, the event was 10-40% more intense than it would have been had it occurred in an El Nino year in a 1.2°C cooler climate. 

• To further characterise and quantify the role of human-induced climate change we then also look at climate models with high enough resolution to capture precipitation over the comparably small study region. The available climate models do not consistently exhibit a trend even for the models that were evaluated to simulate rainfall in the region reasonably well. However there is high uncertainty in this finding, again, due to high year to year rainfall variability.  

• Based on the IPCC AR6 assessment, which includes scientific literature available up to January 2021, there is “medium confidence” that heavy precipitation would be detectably larger in the Arabian Peninsula at about 1.5°C of global warming compared to pre-industrial climate conditions, which is close to the current level of global warming.

• The disagreement between model results and observations prevents us from concluding with certainty that human-induced climate change is the main driver making this event more likely. However, while multiple reasons could explain the absence of a trend in our model results, we have no alternative explanation for a trend in observations [Really? What you mean is you couldn’t be bothered to look for any alternative explanations] other than the expectation of heavy rainfall increasing in a warmer climate.

• While the heavy rainfall was well forecasted by national meteorological agencies, floodwaters led to a high number of deaths and extensive damages to homes, shops, offices and cars in the UAE and Oman. The majority of flood related deaths occurred when people were travelling, and many people in Dubai were forced to abandon their cars in floodwaters. The researchers say this suggests warnings may not have reached some people or were not specific enough to the impacts expected in particular regions.

• The high flood risk varies across demographics. In Oman and the UAE,  80 and 85% of the total populations, respectively, live in flood-prone and low-lying areas that are highly exposed. Because of various challenges to their abilities to respond to flood risk, particularly vulnerable groups tend to include older adults, individuals with disabilities, women with caregiving responsibilities, racial/ethnic minorities, migrant workers, and lower-income groups.

• Across both countries, a high degree of surfaces with limited permeability and absorptive capacity from urban developments, inadequate drainage and the hyper-arid soils exacerbate the risk and severity of flash floods. 

• UAE and Oman adopt proactive disaster risk management strategies, with functional systems for early warning, early action, and emergency response to floods, along with long-term adaptation planning. However, reducing the high exposure to flood risk, more proactive urban planning and integration of impact-based forecasting in EWS are necessary to reduce impacts associated with similar events in the future.  

• Finally, cloud seeding was reported to not have been implemented in the context of this event, and additionally even in case of implementation has no influence on the amount of atmospheric moisture available, which was the main anomalous variable preceding the precipitation event. Hence, we can conclude that cloud seeding had no significant influence in the event

A total nothingburger which will be splashed all across the lamestream media in order to promote the narrative that climate change was the main driver of the flooding in Dubai. Here you go:

Addendum:

Ryan Maue on X: